Trump's "End of War" Theory, Stock Market Wants to Applaud

If the global market is compared to a movie, then the recent plot can be called "Middle East Turmoil."
While investors are nervously watching, Donald Trump suddenly said: The Iran conflict is nearing its end.
This statement might be just an opinion in political circles, but in financial markets, it’s like throwing a stone into water, instantly creating ripples.
The reason is simple: war means uncertainty, and markets fear uncertainty the most.
Especially in the Middle East. There, not only are complex geopolitical relationships at play, but it also controls key global energy supply routes.
As long as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, oil prices will immediately rise.
And rising oil prices trigger a classic chain reaction:
Energy prices increase → corporate costs rise → inflationary pressures grow → monetary policy becomes constrained.
So when Trump says the conflict is nearing its end, many investors don’t picture peace—they see another picture—
Oil prices may fall.
If oil prices retreat, many pressures will ease:
Corporate profit margins recover
Consumer spending increases
Market risk appetite rebounds
That’s why stock markets usually react positively to news of “war ending.”
Of course, markets don’t fully trust anyone’s judgment. After all, geopolitics is as complex as a chess game, and no one can guarantee what will happen next.
But the capital markets have an interesting characteristic:
Expectations react before the facts.
As long as investors believe risks are decreasing, funds will act in advance.
So many traders’ strategies now are very simple:
Watch two things—news and oil prices.
If oil prices start to decline steadily, it indicates the market is believing “the war is really about to end.”
And at that point, risk assets may experience an emotional recovery. $GT ‌#特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声