Wolfe Research: Trump "considered exiting earlier than we had anticipated"

Investing.com - According to a report released by Wolfe Research on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be preparing for an early end to the Iran war.

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Analyst Tobin Marcus wrote that after the president stated “the war is basically over,” the market rebounded sharply, and Trump “took the first step toward what we believe is the final outcome… declaring victory and trying to step back.”

Marcus pointed out that Trump conveyed a “mixed message of victory” during the press conference—claiming that U.S. forces have weakened and destroyed Iran’s missile, drone, and naval capabilities, while also insisting that the war will not end this week.

Trump further warned that if the threat to the Strait of Hormuz persists, he will destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

“This is exactly the final outcome we have been expecting, but Trump is considering withdrawal earlier than we anticipated,” Marcus wrote.

Wolfe previously “bet on a timeline shorter than the 4 to 5 weeks mentioned by the president,” but did not expect him to “start looking for an exit on day 9.”

Whether the conflict can now be de-escalated largely depends on Tehran. Marcus warned that “it is still too early for Iran to accept a ceasefire under Trump’s terms,” and pointed out that Iranian leaders have vowed that if the U.S. continues its strikes, “the Strait of Hormuz will not flow with a single drop of oil.”

Marcus warned that if Iran can still threaten shipping, “we may be some distance from the strike price of Trump’s put options.”

“If the U.S. cannot reopen the strait through military coercion, other policy measures under consideration could help, especially releasing strategic oil reserves,” Marcus said. “A coordinated global release of about 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves could have a substantial impact, potentially offsetting about 20 days of Strait transportation.”

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