Rising potential inflation risks weaken the expectation of rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve's probability of cutting rates in March remaining at only 2.6%.

ZkProver · 2026-03-10T11:16:31+00:00

The turmoil in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, increasing inflation risks and weakening expectations of rate cuts. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.6%, with a 97.4% chance of remaining unchanged. In April, the probability of holding interest rates steady is 85.3%.

ZkProver

2026-03-10 11:16:31

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ChainCatcher News: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile, with rising oil prices increasing potential inflation risks and weakening expectations for rate cuts. According to CME “FedWatch” data, the current probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 97.4%.

The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until April is 85.3%, with a 14.4% chance of a total 25 basis point cut and a 0.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

The next two FOMC meeting dates are March 18 and April 29.

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