Market Overview for March 10: The craziest day in oil prices history, U.S. stocks V-shaped rebound

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Dawn of War Ending, Dow Surges 206 Points

On Monday, Wall Street staged an epic turnaround.

The Dow soared 206 points (+0.43%) to close at 47,707, the S&P 500 jumped 0.83% to 6,796, and the Nasdaq skyrocketed 1.38% to 22,696. This is the first broad rally since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war and the strongest single-day gain in nearly two weeks.

Why did the market suddenly shift from panic to celebration? Trump stated early Monday that U.S. military actions in Iran might “end very soon,” and the Strait of Hormuz is reopening. This statement acted like a strong dose of confidence, completely reversing market sentiment.

The Dow briefly fell 600 points during the day but then experienced a V-shaped reversal, ending higher. This rollercoaster pattern has become the norm this week — markets swinging wildly between “war escalation” and “war ending.”

Sector performance: Chip stocks lead the rally. Broadcom and AMD surged over 4.6%, Nvidia rose 2.73%, and Micron Technology gained over 5%. Technology stocks became the main driver of the rebound as investors re-bet on the AI narrative.

Dow 30 components: Caterpillar led with a 3.39% gain, Nvidia up 2.73%, and Amgen up 2.01%. The biggest losers were Cisco Systems, down 3.08%, Boeing, down 2.70%, and IBM, down 2.08%.

Financial stocks underperformed, with Wells Fargo continuing to decline. Energy stocks showed mixed results — despite oil prices plummeting, some energy stocks took profits as war premiums receded.

Year-to-date performance: The Dow’s annual gain remains negative, but Monday’s rebound gave investors hope. If the war truly ends this week, March could become the market’s turning point month.

Oil prices: Dropped from $120 to $90, the most volatile day in history

On Monday, oil markets experienced historic volatility.

WTI crude briefly surged to $119.48 per barrel before crashing to the $95-100 range. Brent crude also plummeted from Sunday’s high of $119, closing around $90.

A 25% single-day drop, the largest since March 2020.

The catalyst for the plunge was the G7 finance ministers’ discussions on releasing strategic petroleum reserves. Although no immediate action was announced, markets had already priced in this expectation. More importantly, Trump hinted at the Strait of Hormuz reopening, easing the global oil supply bottleneck that accounts for 20% of world supply.

However, oil prices are still about 35% above pre-war levels. Before the conflict (February 27), WTI was around $66. Now, despite falling from $120, it remains in the $90-95 range, roughly 40% higher than pre-war levels. The market is wondering: Is the war really over? Or is it just a temporary ceasefire?

OPEC+ subtle moves: Saudi Arabia began cutting oil production on Monday, becoming another Gulf producer affected by the Hormuz crisis after Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Even if the war ends, restoring capacity will take time.

Gold: War premium recedes, drops below $5,100

On Monday, gold fell 1.91% to $5,081 per ounce, a daily decline of $92. Silver also declined 1.16% to $83.51.

Why did safe-haven assets plunge? Trump’s signals of a war ending boosted market risk appetite, leading funds to flow out of gold into stocks and cryptocurrencies. The strengthening dollar also suppressed gold prices denominated in USD.

But gold remains in a historically high range. It hit a record high of $5,595 on January 29 this year. Although it has pulled back, it’s still up over 100% compared to a year ago. Long-term, geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and Fed rate cut expectations continue to support gold.

The World Gold Council warns: If oil prices keep rising and U.S. Treasury yields increase simultaneously, gold could face structural pressure. High oil prices boost inflation expectations, potentially forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin holds at $67,000, market sentiment cautiously optimistic

On Monday, the crypto market remained steady.

Bitcoin hovered around $67,146, with a slight 24-hour gain. The total global crypto market cap is approximately $2.44 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market share at 56.8%.

Bitcoin’s performance on Monday was more stable than U.S. stocks. Despite the V-shaped reversal in equities, Bitcoin showed limited volatility and held the $67,000 support level. This indicates that crypto investors’ sensitivity to geopolitical risks is decreasing — war news no longer triggers panic selling like last week.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows last week (March 2–6) totaled $568 million, marking two consecutive weeks of net inflows and reversing February’s outflows. BlackRock transferred 2,200 BTC (worth $149 million) to Coinbase, showing ongoing institutional interest.

Technical outlook: Bitcoin remains in the $65,000–$75,000 range. If the war truly ends, oil prices fall, inflation eases, and Fed rate cut expectations rise, Bitcoin could challenge $75,000 again. But if it’s only a temporary ceasefire, markets will stay cautious.

According to Polymarket’s forecast data, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in March is 45.5%, and by the end of the year, 86.5%.

Today’s summary: War’s end sparks a rebound, but markets need confirmation

On March 10, the U.S.-Iran war enters its 11th day, and markets see their first broad rally:

U.S. stocks: Dow +206 points (+0.43%), S&P +0.83%, Nasdaq +1.38%. Chip stocks lead, with Broadcom and AMD up over 4.6%, Nvidia up 2.73%. The Dow, after a brief 600-point plunge, experienced a V-shaped reversal as investors re-bet on war ending.

Oil: Dropped from Sunday’s pre-market high of $120 to $90–$95, a decline of over 25%, the largest since March 2020. Trump hinted at the end of military operations, the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and G7 discussing strategic reserves. Oil remains 35–40% above pre-war levels.

Gold: Down 1.91% to $5,081, as war premium recedes and risk appetite returns.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin holds at $67,000, total market cap at $2.44 trillion. Two weeks of net ETF inflows and ongoing institutional interest. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

The market’s only question now: Is the war truly over?

If Trump’s statements are accurate and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens this week, oil prices could continue falling to $70–$80, U.S. stocks could rebound strongly, and the Dow could return to 48,000–49,000.

But if it’s only a temporary ceasefire, Iran could retaliate at any time, causing oil prices to spike again and markets to panic once more.

At least today, one signal is very clear: investors are betting early on the war’s end. The 25% plunge in oil, the V-shaped stock recovery, and the gold drop all tell you that Wall Street believes the worst is over.