CICC: The risk of "quasi-stagflation" in the United States further increases

Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 10 — According to Jin10 Data, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated in its 2026 macro outlook report that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy is “stagflation-like conditions.” Recent developments are increasingly confirming and strengthening this view. On one hand, the US-Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, and the inflationary pressures are shifting more toward structural factors, which could keep inflation sticky. On the other hand, the substitution effect of AI on white-collar jobs is beginning to show, dampening employment growth momentum; meanwhile, risks in private credit are rising, and once the industry enters a phase of cleanup, financial conditions may tighten, potentially dragging on economic growth.

On the policy front, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. CICC believes that the timing of interest rate cuts may be delayed until the second half of the year. The stimulative effects of tax cuts are partly offset by tariff hikes and increased household savings, so the actual boost may be lower than expected. Against this backdrop, US economic growth is expected to slow, risk premiums in capital markets are rising, and capital allocation may shift from chasing yields to more risk-averse strategies.