#国际油价突破100美元 Currently, Bitcoin is in a technical rebound window during a bear market. The macro environment is facing triple bearish signals (non-farm payrolls - a significant negative impact of 92,000, crude oil at $120 causing inflation concerns, and the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates), reinforcing the overall bearish trend. Technically, the 4-hour MACD is about to form a golden cross, providing short-term rebound momentum, but the daily MACD is about to form a death cross, and the weekly long upper shadow exerts double pressure, limiting the rebound space. Today's core trading strategy is: wait for the 4-hour rebound to push the price to touch the right side of 69,900–70,500 (first neckline) to short, and if it breaks through, then short again at 72,000 (second neckline); if the market strongly breaks all resistance levels, wait for a trend short position on the left side of the 80,000 high point; if the market continues to decline, watch for long opportunities around 63,800–64,300 on the left side; maintain a long-term spot dollar-cost averaging strategy in the 57,700–56,600 golden pit zone, with the strategy direction unchanged.