JPMorgan warns that US stocks may decline due to Middle East conflict, 10% market not yet prepared

CycleProphet · 2026-03-09T13:16:19+00:00

JPMorgan warns that the Iran war could cause the S&P 500 to drop by 10%, and investors are not yet prepared. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, intensifying market concerns over supply shocks and stagflation. Analysts believe that if the situation eases, risk assets still have potential.

CycleProphet

2026-03-09 13:16:19

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 9 — JPMorgan’s trading division stated that the Iran conflict could cause the S&P 500 to drop as much as 10% from its high, and US stock traders are not yet prepared for this. Andrew Tyler, head of Global Market Intelligence at JPMorgan, said on Monday that with no signs of easing in the Middle East conflict and oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel, he has turned tactically bearish on US stocks. If a pullback occurs, it would mean the S&P 500 could fall about 10% from its peak to around 6,270 points, roughly 7% below last Friday’s close.

Tyler said investors are not currently positioned for a decline, describing their overall stance as neutral and lacking extreme risk-off moves. Since traders expect the situation to ease, energy stocks were net sold last week. However, after several Gulf countries cut production, oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, sparking concerns about long-term supply shocks and stagflation risks. Tyler believes that if the conflict does not persist, these risks could quickly subside. “Once there is a clear path to de-escalation, this tactical view will end, as the macro fundamentals still support risk assets.” (Jin10)

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