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$BTC This week we will see several important macro events, including Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index(CPI) and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures(PCE) data, as well as the US GDP growth data released on Friday. These figures do not reflect the recent surge in oil prices, as they represent inflation from the previous month, but they are still important because they show the development of inflation before the recent geopolitical tensions and help us understand broader inflation trends.
If this week's data exceeds expectations, we may see inflation already beginning to rise before recent developments, which suggests that next month's data could further increase, indicating an upward trend in inflation. If inflation is below expectations, it would be better for asset markets than high inflation, but we still need to be cautious because this week's data does not reflect the current macro environment.
Remember, all these developments and data releases occur before the next FOMC meeting, which is in 9 days, and this is crucial for asset markets this year. Due to concerns about inflation, the Federal Reserve has adopted a hawkish stance, and considering recent developments, a significant shift toward a more dovish stance is unlikely in the short term, especially as the labor market has already stabilized.