Oil prices surge, A-shares jump! But these two lines are skyrocketing against the market trend. Do you understand?

** Short-term Core Concept: Unity of knowledge and action, operate within your own model understanding, focus more on personal growth internally, control drawdowns with position sizing, slow is fast. ** [Taogu Ba]

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This week’s operations:**

Monday:

Holding: Zhangyuan Tungsten

1. Aerospace Development surged early, hit the daily high and then pulled back;

2. End of day, gathered positions in Zhangyuan Tungsten;

Summary for today: Before the market opened, I screened four concepts: UCloud, YunSai Smart, Hand Enterprise, and Tuowei Information. But due to uncertain strength at the open, I chose to abandon them proactively. Throughout the day, there was rotation, and I only added to positions at the close. Good food is not afraid of being late; focus on certainty, steadily moving upward, and during downturns, prevent retracement.

Market Analysis Today:

Today’s market formed a classic “deep V” pattern, with the three major indices dropping over 3% at one point but then recovering strongly, ending down less than 1%. However, individual stocks were devastated—over 3,900 stocks declined, only about 1,400 rose. Trading volume increased significantly, reaching 2.65 trillion yuan, about 450 billion more than yesterday. What does this indicate? It shows that it’s not a lack of participants, but that everyone is panic-rebalancing their portfolios, with fierce competition.

The most core change: funds have completely retreated from high-position tech growth stocks, rushing into safe-haven sectors like oil & gas, coal, and policy-supported areas like power grids and computing power. This is a typical “risk appetite” plummet—external conflicts (Middle East escalation) and internal safety concerns dominate, prioritizing survival and certainty.

Today’s main themes are very clear, but with vastly different strength levels:

Strongest theme (driven by both events and policies): Power grid equipment / Ultra-high voltage. Today this line was very strong, with Guodian Nanzi and Sanbian Technology hitting daily limits and reaching new highs. Logic is solid: externally, the US has a $75 billion plan to upgrade the power grid; internally, “computing and electricity synergy” was included in the government work report. This combines a compelling story with tangible order expectations, making it the most popular among funds.

Second-tier theme (purely event-driven): Oil & gas, coal. The Middle East conflict affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing international oil prices to spike, with Brent crude briefly hitting $110. China National Offshore Oil and China Petroleum surged. Coal stocks followed oil & gas, based on “oil-coal substitution” and high dividend defense logic. However, this line has issues: many stocks opened high but fell back, indicating weak willingness to chase high prices—more short-term arbitrage than sustained trend.

Rotation sub-theme (event catalyst): Computing power leasing / AI applications. Over the weekend, an open-source AI project called OpenClaw went viral (“raising lobsters,” as netizens joke), sparking some interest. UCloud and Shunwang Technology hit 20% daily limits. But this is mainly a rebound from oversold levels and hype, with the overall trend not yet reversed. Watch for another day.

Key internal market points:

Limit-up streaks have increased, but profit-taking effect is poor. The highest stocks hit 4 limit-ups (Shun Na Co., Wangli Security), looking promising. But only 50 stocks hit daily limits, 9 hit daily limits down, with a 44% break rate. This shows that the market’s rally is fragile; funds only cluster around a few core stocks, most are left unattended.

Capital flows are one-sided. Main funds are rapidly exiting tech sectors like electronics, computing, and communications, each losing tens of billions. Meanwhile, large inflows into coal and power equipment. Northbound funds also net out nearly 5 billion, clearly seeking safety.

Volume has increased, but it’s a “volume decline.” The 2.65 trillion yuan turnover indicates huge divergence between bulls and bears, with lots of chips changing hands. This is not new capital entering but existing capital panicking and rebalancing. Such volume-driven declines usually aren’t bottom signals.

Next week’s news outlook (simple analysis):

Middle East situation (ongoing impact): The biggest uncertainty. The outcome of Iran’s supreme leader election will determine whether conflicts escalate or ease. As long as tensions persist, safe-haven assets like oil, gold, and shipping will remain volatile, with large fluctuations and high trading difficulty.

US inflation data (CPI on March 11, PCE on March 13): Key to global liquidity. If data exceeds expectations, Fed rate cuts will be further delayed, suppressing tech growth stocks (AI, semiconductors). If data is moderate, growth stocks may rebound.

Domestic policies and industry events: The Two Sessions will conclude midweek. Watch for unexpected policy details that favor new productive forces (AI, power grids, robotics). Also, the Hangzhou Global AI Conference (GAIC), China Embodied Intelligence Robot Industry Conference, and Shanghai Commercial Space Conference will be held intensively, potentially catalyzing investments in AI applications, robotics, and commercial space.

Trading ideas and recommendations:

Focus on the absolute core, don’t chase blindly. Tomorrow, watch two lines: power grid equipment and oil & gas. For power grids, observe Guodian Nanzi and Sanbian Technology’s performance; if they hold steady, there’s room for low-position catch-up. Oil & gas depend entirely on international oil prices, which will be very volatile—suitable for short-term traders with quick entries and exits. Avoid chasing high today; many stocks opened high and fell back, providing lessons.

Avoid the following sectors: semiconductors, consumer electronics, communication equipment—these tech growth stocks are being heavily sold today. Funds are clearly exiting, so don’t buy the falling knives. Also, airlines and airports affected by soaring oil prices are clearly damaged.

Pay attention to rhythm, control your hands. Today’s market sentiment is panic, with indices bouncing but individual stocks falling sharply. Tomorrow likely to see further dips or divergence. For non-mainline stocks following the trend, rebounds are opportunities to reduce positions. During emotional downturns, controlling position size is top priority—recommend lowering holdings below 50%, even lower, and observe more than act.

Watch if the market can “desensitize.” Compared to Japan and Korea (Nikkei down over 5%, Korea down over 7% triggering circuit breakers), A-shares have been relatively resilient. Next, observe whether panic over Middle East escalations diminishes. If external stability is maintained, A-shares may develop their own independent trend, shifting focus back to sectors like power grids and computing power with intrinsic logic.

Growth philosophy:

My personal approach is “fish first, then net.” Fishing isn’t something you master in a week or a month, but catching fish gives you the capital for trial and error. The first step in fishing is to improve your aesthetic judgment, not to do technical analysis, because you lack a complete model. Relying on a single indicator is more likely to be superficial than substantive. Cultivate your aesthetic, focus on core, and feel the high premium of prediction and deduction. Like the saying: “Read three hundred Tang poems thoroughly, even if you can’t compose poetry, you can recite.”

For learning systems, either learn correctly—making your efforts more effective—or explore on your own. The worst is being misled during the beginner phase into learning chaotic stuff. Many newcomers use jargon without understanding where they learned it, talking a lot but mostly wrong. Sometimes, when you try to correct them, they stubbornly cling to misconceptions—because they’ve absorbed too much junk and their thinking is rigid. They can’t understand the worldview of stocks; everything is conspiracy theories, luck, and backtesting is useless. They just close their eyes and pick randomly, believing success or failure is predestined.

I believe “fish first”—many people only realize their mistakes after tasting the fruit, and then they correct their understanding of the market and admit that their previous flawed methods were wrong. If you follow for more than a month, you’ll notice your stock selection aesthetic gradually improves—this is the effect. One day, you’ll find that your view of the market changes; all candlesticks and stock movements become clear, and enlightenment is built on solid foundational cognition and daily practice.

So, choosing the right learning direction is crucial. If you lack innate insight, learn to follow. There are countless paths, and you’ll find the one that suits you. Welcome more friends to join our journey across the stars and seas!

Enlightenment Post:

Thanks to @DanaoDaiZhuPig and @TimeSpaceArt for the support with vouchers!

Thanks to @DanaoDaiZhuPig, @JabeStock, @Nirvana2018, @StarrySkyYou, @KunGuoStockWife, and @FengZhangTingBan for your support and tips!

Wishing all those who like and support us a prosperous 2026 stock market!