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The US attacked Iran's oil industry 💣
Trump is once again escalating tensions – traditionally over the weekend. After strikes on Iranian oil facilities, the market is expecting retaliatory attacks on production and refineries in the Persian Gulf.
Currently: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar have confirmed at least partial production halts.
Important: Oil does not flow from a tap; in case of production stoppage, it will take weeks or months to restore output.
The crisis could become long-term ☠️
Polymarket gives a 53% chance that gasoline in the US will exceed $4.25 per gallon in March (+55% over the month) – the risk of stagflation is increasing.
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