Oil prices tend to spike when conflict threatens supply routes or key producers buyers price in risk, tankers reroute, and headlines amplify volatility. If the war stays limited and doesn’t hit major export infrastructure, the bump often fades as inventories and non-affected output fill the gap If it escalates or raises fears about Strait of Hormuz Russian flows etc we can see a sustained risk premium and wild swings Right now it’s mostly a risk-premium trade: sensitive to headlines with speculators leaning long but vulnerable to quick sell-offs if diplomacy eases or strategic reserves get tapped