Weekly Macro Review: Non-Farm Payrolls Surprise & Oil Prices Surge, What Did the Stock Token Market Experience?

Last week, the global financial markets experienced a significant shift in pricing logic. Macro traders were simultaneously digesting two opposing forces: on one hand, a sharply cooling labor market; on the other, soaring energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts. This combination heightened concerns about “stagflation” (economic stagnation + inflation).

Weak Signals from Employment Data

U.S. Department of Labor data showed a net loss of 92,000 non-farm jobs in February, well below the expected increase of 55,000. This is only the second month of negative growth since 2020, and previous figures were revised downward. Although the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4% within an acceptable range, the absolute decline in employment prompted markets to reassess the resilience of the U.S. economy. Some analysts suggest that, beyond seasonal factors, the substitution effect of artificial intelligence on employment may be accelerating.

Energy Shock Intensifies Inflation Pressure

Contrasting the coldness in the labor market, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caused oil prices to surge. As tensions with Iran escalated, the Strait of Hormuz— a critical global oil transit route— came under threat. U.S. WTI crude futures soared over 35 last week, closing at $90.90 per barrel on Friday, and briefly breaking $110 in early Monday trading. As oil is a key input for the economy, its rapid price increase quickly fed into inflation expectations, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 4.14%.

Monetary Policy in a Dilemma

Poor employment data should have increased expectations for rate cuts, but stubborn inflation and soaring oil prices limited the Fed’s room for action. According to CME data, the market still prices in a 95.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at the March meeting. This “weak employment + strong inflation” scenario puts dual pressure on risk assets—including stocks and cryptocurrencies—through valuation downgrades and liquidity tightening expectations. Last week, the three major U.S. stock indices all declined, with the S&P 500 falling 2.02% for the week.

Perspective on Stock Tokens: How Does Macro Logic Transmit?

For traders focusing on stock tokens on Gate, understanding the transmission path of macro logic is crucial. The price fluctuations of stock tokens essentially reflect expectations of their underlying assets (like Tesla, Coinbase, etc.) under macro conditions.

• Tech stocks under pressure: A decline in Nasdaq 100 futures often spills over into tokens related to AI and tech themes. In an environment of high interest rate expectations and uncertain economic outlooks, high-valuation growth tech stocks are most vulnerable.
• Earnings as a validation: This week, Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) earnings will serve as benchmarks for the overall AI trading environment. After Nvidia’s strong earnings failed to meet investor expectations, market hopes for AI narratives have become more cautious. If earnings fall short, short-term volatility in related sector tokens may occur.
• Linkage between traditional assets and tokens: Recently, an interesting signal has emerged: funds are flowing out of traditional safe-haven assets (like gold and silver) and into cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks. Although this is just a two-hour snapshot, it hints that some investors are starting to view digital assets as an alternative in certain macro environments.

Macro Data Focus List for This Week

This week will be data-heavy, with inflation data directly testing whether the “rising oil prices → inflation rebound” transmission has begun. It’s recommended to closely monitor the following events on Gate:

Inflation Data (Top Priority)

• Wednesday (March 11): U.S. February CPI (not seasonally adjusted). Market expects a year-over-year increase of 2.4%.
• Friday (March 13): U.S. January Core PCE Price Index Yearly Rate. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. If the data exceeds expectations, combined with high oil prices, it could further dampen rate cut expectations.

Tech Earnings (AI Indicator)

• Tuesday (March 10): Oracle (ORCL) earnings. As a major enterprise software and cloud service provider, its performance will reflect corporate IT spending intentions.

Geopolitics and Consumer Sentiment

• Ongoing: Developments in Iran. Any disruptions in Strait of Hormuz shipping or new sanctions could trigger sharp oil price swings.
• Friday (March 13): U.S. March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading and inflation expectations. Consumer outlook on future inflation will influence actual spending behavior.

Conclusion

For stock token traders, the macro environment has shifted from a “single narrative” to a “complex game.” The coexistence of a weak labor market and strong oil prices suggests that market volatility may further increase. When making trading decisions on Gate, consider the above macro data as a “background”:

• If CPI / PCE exceeds expectations: it could heighten stagflation fears, putting short-term pressure on tech-related tokens.
• If CPI remains controlled: combined with weak employment data, market confidence in a soft landing may recover, offering rebound opportunities.
• Geopolitical risk premiums: as long as Middle East tensions persist, oil-related volatility will continue, and traders should be cautious of its dampening effect on global risk appetite.