【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle Eastern oil production is expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day by the end of next week

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-09T02:02:39+00:00

The Middle East conflict has nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz, restricting production from major oil-producing countries, and oil prices have surged past $100. JPMorgan forecasts that Middle Eastern crude oil production cuts will reach 4 million barrels per day; if Iran's exports are further restricted, the loss could increase to 5 million barrels per day. Supply shortages will impact consumer markets and exacerbate global economic risks.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-09 02:02:39

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Amid Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly completely closed, further restricting production from major Middle Eastern oil producers, with oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel. JPMorgan states that as oil reserves are gradually filled and transportation bottlenecks persist, the scale of crude oil production cuts in the Middle East is expected to increase to over 4 million barrels per day by the end of next week.

JPMorgan commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva and other analysts say that if the Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports, experiences a disruption, the production halt could increase by an additional 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, resulting in a supply loss of at least 5 million barrels daily in the region; including refined products, the reduction could exceed 8 million barrels per day.

JPMorgan indicates that Iran, which was expected to delay production cuts, may act sooner than Kuwait and the UAE.

As shipments scheduled before the conflict are gradually depleted and new shipments are blocked, the consumer market could start experiencing significant supply shortages within a week.

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