The ongoing conflict + multiple countries reducing production lead to a historic surge in international oil prices. The latest list of financing clients rushing to buy stocks is released.

Middle Eastern conflicts have disrupted oil exports, combined with multiple oil-producing countries being forced to cut production due to full storage capacity. International oil prices surged to historic highs on Monday, with both WTI and Brent surpassing $100 per barrel for the first time since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

As of 8:30, WTI crude futures rose by 18.45%, trading at $107.67 per barrel, reaching a high of $111.24 per barrel; Brent crude futures briefly hit $111.04 per barrel, currently at $108.20, up 16.73% for the day.

Hamaney’s Son Takes Over, Trump Threatens

According to CCTV News, Iran’s Expert Assembly has confirmed Mujetaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran.

Public records show Mujetaba Khamenei was born in 1969 and is the second son of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. On February 28, local time, Ali Khamenei was killed in attacks by the US and Israel on Iran.

According to the Iranian Constitution, the Supreme Leader has almost final decision-making authority over major affairs and serves as the Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s armed forces. The Expert Assembly is the highest authority responsible for electing, supervising, and dismissing Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Notably, U.S. President Trump threatened on the 8th that Iran’s new leader “won’t last long” without his approval.

In an interview, Trump said the new Iranian leader “must be approved by us,” or “he won’t last long.” He also mentioned considering accepting someone connected to the “old regime” to lead Iran, noting “many people could qualify.”

Multiple Middle Eastern Oil Producers Announce Production Cuts

Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, known as the “throat of global energy,” remains nearly at a standstill. Due to ongoing disruptions in oil transportation and increasing onshore storage capacity, major Middle Eastern oil producers are limiting output.

Kuwait National Petroleum Company announced on the 7th that, affected by threats of conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, as well as a shortage of ships for transporting crude and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz, the company has declared “force majeure” and begun reducing crude oil and refining volumes.

The company did not specify the scale of the cut but stated it is a preventive measure, to be evaluated based on the situation, and is prepared to restore capacity when conditions allow.

Earlier, Iraq, Qatar, the UAE, and other major oil producers also announced production cuts.

Institutions: Monitoring Strait Navigation Recovery

Analysts believe that current oil prices are primarily driven by geopolitical conflict risks.

Guojin Securities’ latest report states that short-term oil prices will depend on the duration of the conflict and the recovery of Strait navigation. If the blockade lasts longer than expected, panic in the crude market will intensify, and as global oil inventories are depleted, geopolitical risk premiums could reach extreme levels. Conversely, if navigation resumes quickly, premiums may rapidly decline.

Macquarie’s global energy strategist Vikas Devedi predicts that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for a few weeks could trigger a chain reaction, potentially pushing oil prices to $150 per barrel or higher.

JPMorgan notes that the “production halt wave” among Middle Eastern oil producers is spreading rapidly, with shutdowns possibly reaching 6 million barrels per day. If full production stops, oil prices could surge by $30 per barrel. Goldman Sachs also warns that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted 90%, and if the crisis persists, prices could surpass the 2008 historic peak.

Zheshang Securities points out that global oil prices impact oil companies’ capital expenditures, which in turn affect oil service industry demand. If prices continue to rise and stabilize at mid-to-high levels, capital spending by oil and gas companies may marginally increase, boosting the oil service sector’s activity and further driving demand for new equipment and upgrades.

Retail Investors Snatch Up Multiple Stocks Last Week

According to Eastmoney, over 50 A-share stocks related to oil and gas services are involved, with a total market value exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan.

Since the beginning of the year, nearly 90% of oil and gas service stocks have risen in price, led by Tongyuan Petroleum, which nearly tripled. Keli Co., Potential Hengxin, and others have increased by about 1.5 times; Shandong Molong’s stock price has doubled. Stocks like Zhunyou, Xinjin Power, Zhongman Petroleum, and Jerey each gained over 70%.

Last week, affected by Middle Eastern tensions, the sector experienced a sharp rise in the first two days followed by a correction, but nearly 70% of stocks still gained. Shandong Molong led with a 50% weekly increase, Trisrose followed with 43.47%, and Keli Co., Tongyuan Petroleum, Changjiang Nengke, and Potential Hengxin each rose between 20% and 40%.

Data from Eastmoney’s Choice shows that 11 oil and gas service stocks received net financing of over 50 million yuan. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) attracted 415 million yuan in net financing, while JiuFeng Energy, Zhongman Petroleum, Potential Hengxin, and CNOOC Services each had over 200 million yuan in net buy-ins. Snowman Group also saw leveraged funds increase by 117 million yuan.

(Source: Eastmoney Research Center)