3.9 Weekend Important Reminder!

Yunnan Energy Holdings (SZ001896) Brief: Last week, the market was impacted and then recovered from external geopolitical tensions. Many friends experienced a sharp decline in their accounts, some saw rollercoaster swings, and a few even outperformed against the trend. This depends on your participation direction. Last week’s trading volume gradually decreased, related to an important meeting and external factors. Since it was a special meeting period, institutions limited net selling, so reduced volume still allowed for recovery, which is normal. Regarding new themes, last week’s smart economy and the shift from light to copper only had one day of hotness; the next day, there was almost no premium. This reflects the characteristics of the quantitative era—insufficient theme fermentation and lack of follow-up funds, leading to a strategy of shorting the overhyped. The three hottest events over the weekend were: 1. Content mentioned in the important meeting, mainly analyzing the electric power industry chain; 2. Crude oil breaking through $90, with potential escalation in US-Iran tensions; 3. AI application directions, like “Lobster,” gaining popularity, signaling new application upgrades.

For this week, two main observations are: first, after the meeting concludes, where will market speculation continue; second, after a week, will there be new variables in US-Iran tensions? The following analysis focuses on index levels and sentiment cycles:

1. Index Cycle Thinking:

The index has entered its fourth day of decline, attempting to recover and test the 5-day moving average. In the first half of this week, the index remains within the important meeting period. Expect volatility to stay moderate, possibly with a rebound and pullback pattern. This is a reflection of the index cycle.

2. Sentiment Cycle Projection:

First, Long Analysis: Currently, the market’s recognition of leading stocks shows Yunnan Energy Holdings has greater influence than newly listed stocks like Intercontinental Oil & Gas. Yunnan Energy’s focus is on computing power and electricity, with a larger impact from electricity. Therefore, Yunnan Energy can be seen as a leader in the power grid sector. Its own trend has been driven higher along with the sector, but the company has also announced suspensions due to regulatory issues, and there’s a short-term possibility of a 3-day 20% deviation. Its participation value is limited; mainly, it serves as a sentiment indicator for the power sector. Regarding oil and gas, which has been the strongest performing sector this month, leading stocks include Shandong Molu, JinNiu Chemical. From a conflict evolution perspective, the initial surge was the strongest, but without new upgrade expectations like sustained oil price increases, the sector’s strength should gradually decline. So, it’s mainly to be observed for now.

Second: Opportunity Analysis: As mentioned, the three hottest directions over the weekend are: 1. Content from the meeting on power grid and new energy storage; 2. Crude oil breaking through $90, with no signs of ceasefire between US and Iran; 3. “Lobster” gaining popularity, AI entering an autonomous operation era. The “Lobster” is interesting—by interacting with it, you can tell AI your needs, such as deleting files or renaming, and it executes. It reminds me of game cheats used in the past—roughly the same idea. It’s not new; previously, commands were inputted, now it’s conversational. The underlying logic still involves reasoning and computing power. Whether the market funds recognize this depends on the sustained fermentation over the weekend, which seems to be stronger than smart economy and optoelectronics.

Additionally, this week’s focus is on whether, after the second half of the important meeting, market speculation will continue to focus on US-Iran conflict, energy substitution (power grid, energy storage, photovoltaics), or new AI themes. This is crucial. Also, observe whether trading volume returns after the meeting, whether the index stabilizes and recovers, or continues to decline. Overall, in the first week of March, external factors had a significant impact. In the second week, real capital allocation begins. Based on market news and capital flow, one can gradually judge the market trend. Personally, I favor energy substitution sectors, followed by key industries mentioned during the meeting, such as brain-computer interfaces, and upcoming news on commercial spaceflight this month and next. It’s worth paying attention to potential rebounds in commercial space.

Special Reminder: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. No stock recommendations are provided! Investing involves risks; please proceed cautiously!