Risk aversion rises: Oil prices surge, triggering BTC long liquidations, with prices under pressure and consolidating

Macro Pressure Transmission, BTC Pullback

BTC broke below $66,000, mainly due to macro uncertainties causing a risk appetite contraction that spread to the crypto market. The escalation of Middle East tensions pushed oil prices up by as much as 20%, and BTC dropped about 2% within 15 minutes. Volatility in traditional assets seeped into the crypto market through risk exposure correlations.

The Fear and Greed Index fell to 13, but this isn’t an isolated panic event; it resembles a broad deleveraging process amplifying volatility: over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached about $146M, with longs at $121M and shorts at $26M. Coupled with $86.6B in open interest and slightly negative funding rates (-0.076%), this indicates an over-leverage liquidation process, not a fundamental change in BTC value.

From a technical perspective, the 1-hour RSI is at 38.8, MACD histogram at -82.77, indicating short-term momentum exhaustion; the price is testing the lower Bollinger Band (around $66,183). If macro headwinds ease, there could be stabilization nearby. Historically, similar oversold zones often correspond to mean reversion within range-bound oscillations.

The claim of “77% unrealized loss for corporate holdings” lacks real driving force. For example, with Saylor’s average holding price around $75,985, strong conviction funds are not passively forced to sell. On-chain: realized price at about $54,475 suggests some buffer from the “real pressure zone”; MVRV at 1.23 points to a fair value vicinity rather than a 2022-style deep capitulation. Whale addresses show signs of absorbing panic sell-offs.

• Derivatives pressure: Mainly long liquidations, risk exposure skewed to one side.
• On-chain support: Realized price well below current price, supporting a buy-the-dip logic.
• Macro correlation: Oil prices rose about 30% over the week, coinciding with BTC’s four-day decline, but correlation does not imply causation.

On the trading front, I avoid aggressive shorting; if the $63,700 Fibonacci level holds, tactical long positions are more advantageous. The current “panic trading” appears somewhat lagging, and the market’s pricing of BTC’s cycle is biased. NUPL/SOPR data gaps limit a full picture of capitulation, but do not affect the core “fair valuation” signal.

Bearish Narrative vs. Evidence

The table below summarizes several mainstream narratives, corresponding evidence, the transmission pathways, and my assessment of their validity.

This reflects an overestimated bearish consensus. Derivatives data suggest limited space for forced liquidations, insufficient to support disorderly decline; MVRV isn’t significantly undervalued, aligning more with “consolidation rather than collapse.” Additionally, daily ADX above 34 indicates a strong but potentially exhausted trend.

Conclusion: Entering “panic trading” now is somewhat late; advantage lies with disciplined traders and active funds capable of mean reversion. The overall tone is “consolidation leaning weak,” and if macro pressures ease, a short-term rebound is likely. Long-term holders are less affected; patience remains key.