$5,057 per ounce gold · $82 silver... ETFs are rebounding simultaneously. Central banks continue to purchase "60~70 tons per month" on average.

Gold prices on the 9th (local time) traded around $5,057.20 per ounce, slightly lower than the previous trading day’s (6th) close of $5,153.27. Meanwhile, silver prices were reported at $82.13 per ounce, down modestly from the 6th’s close of $83.90. Since the beginning of the month, both gold and silver have experienced significant intraday adjustments on the 3rd, with the narrowing of declines continuing.

After forming a high in the $5,400 range early this month, gold has fluctuated around the $5,000 level, showing increased volatility. Silver similarly declined from a high in the $90 range at the end of February, dropping to around $78 on the 3rd, then re-approaching the $80 level to seek direction. Gold is generally classified as a safe asset, while silver is viewed as a “cyclical precious metal” with higher industrial demand. Recently, both assets have shown similar recovery phases after short-term corrections.

The exchange-traded fund (ETF) market also reflects this trend. The flagship gold ETF—SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)—closed at $473.51 on the 6th, rebounding after hitting a low of $468.14 on the 3rd, marking three consecutive days of closing price gains. The silver ETF—iShares Silver Trust (SLV)—also rebounded slightly from $74.68 on the 3rd to $75.94 on the 6th after a dip. The synchronized rebound of ETF prices following spot price adjustments indicates that, despite short-term volatility, market attention to safe assets and alternative investment tools remains sustained.

Underlying factors include central bank gold purchases, monetary policy, and geopolitical influences. Notably, after global central banks net purchased about 863 tons of gold in 2025, they continued to buy around 60-70 tons per month in 2026, mainly in emerging markets, shifting foreign exchange reserves from the dollar to gold. This trend is becoming a background factor in price formation. The case of Russia’s assets being frozen after the Ukraine war has been cited as an opportunity for China, India, and Middle Eastern countries to increase caution regarding dollar assets. This shift in perception, as a variable stimulating gold preference, is also widely discussed in the market.

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations are also mentioned as influencing market sentiment. The possibility of additional rate cuts, actual negative real interest rates, and a weakening dollar have been discussed, while speculation about Fed chair nominations has temporarily boosted the dollar, creating a short-term link with gold price adjustments. Signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market are interpreted as signals that the Fed might consider an earlier shift to easing policies, gradually reflected in actual gold, silver, and ETF prices.

Comparing spot and ETF trends shows that spot prices fluctuate sharply within the trading day, exploring highs and lows, while ETF prices tend to adjust more gradually with volume changes, exhibiting repeated rebounds and consolidations. This indicates that, beyond physical supply and demand, relative attractiveness of other assets like stocks, bonds, and exchange rates, as well as liquidity conditions, are simultaneously influencing financial product prices. Notably, the daily trading volume of GLD and SLV increased during adjustment phases before gradually returning to normal, reflecting a market structure where short-term profit-taking and re-entry coexist.

Overall, the gold and silver markets, under the combined influence of geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and monetary policy expectations, are emphasizing defensive characteristics, with ongoing short-term corrections and rebounds in a volatile pattern. Silver, with higher industrial demand, is more sensitive to economic variables, experiencing slightly larger declines and volatility than gold, which is generally supported by central bank demand and safe-haven preferences.

However, gold and silver prices are highly sensitive to interest rates, the dollar exchange rate, monetary policies of various countries, and political and geopolitical variables including wars and sanctions. Given the potential for short-term volatility to expand due to macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical developments, markets are expected to continue monitoring the evolution of these factors.