Strait of Hormuz Update: Nearly stagnant for 7 consecutive days, only Iranian vessels have passed in the past 24 hours.

The commercial shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to deepen.

On March 9, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, this critical global energy corridor has been in a state of “near stagnation” for the seventh consecutive day. In the past 24 hours, only one bulk carrier related to Iran has departed from the Persian Gulf, with no ships entering from the opposite direction. The last commercial vessel with no obvious connection to Iran—the Chinese bulk carrier “Sino Ocean”—completed its transit last Saturday morning.

According to Wallstreetcn, the vessel broadcasted a “China all” (CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW) signal when passing through the narrowest part of the strait, becoming the second ship to transit under the “Iron Lady” after displaying a “Chinese shipowner” identity. However, this remains a rare case, with no further Chinese ships following this approach.

The blockade effect is rapidly propagating along the supply chain. Bloomberg reports that due to the inability of oil tankers to operate normally in and out of the Persian Gulf, offshore oil storage tanks are continuously accumulating, with some refineries reducing capacity; Iraq has been forced to cut oil production, followed by Kuwait and the UAE. As of last Friday, only nine supertankers remain idle within the Gulf.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is shifting its crude oil exports to the Red Sea route. In the first seven days of March, the number of supertankers loaded at the Red Sea ports of Yanbu and Al Muajjiz has set a record. However, analysts warn that the sustainability of this alternative route remains highly uncertain.

Only Iranian ships are transiting, effectively halting commercial shipping

According to Bloomberg’s ship tracking data, in the recent observation window, only one Iran-related bulk carrier departed from the Persian Gulf in the past 24 hours, with no ships entering from the Oman Gulf. This indicates that bi-directional commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively interrupted.

Multiple missile and drone attacks targeting commercial ships are the direct trigger for this shipping standstill. Bloomberg notes that ongoing missile and drone activity continues to pose “critical risks” to all nearby vessels, leading most commercial shipowners to avoid the waterway.

Wallstreetcn reports that the Joint Maritime Information and Coordination Center (JMIC) announced on March 6 that only two confirmed commercial transits occurred in the past 24 hours through the Strait of Hormuz, both of which were cargo ships, not oil tankers, with transit volume dropping to single digits. Lloyd’s Market Association data shows that about 1,000 ships worth approximately $25 billion remain stranded in the Gulf and surrounding waters, most waiting and watching.

Notably, Bloomberg points out that due to widespread signal interference and transponder shutdowns in the area, real-time vessel tracking near the Strait of Hormuz faces significant difficulties—ships’ positions often only reappear on satellite signals days later, so actual transit volumes may be somewhat underestimated.

“Chinese identity” as a transit pass, but few follow suit

Wallstreetcn mentions that in the rare successful transits, “Chinese ownership” labels have become a means for some ships to attempt risk mitigation.

According to Liberation Daily, on March 5 Beijing time, the bulk carrier “Iron Lady” changed its transponder signal to “China Owner,” successfully crossing the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman coast.

Subsequently, the Liberia-flagged bulk carrier “Sino Ocean” adopted the same strategy on the morning of March 7, broadcasting “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” while passing through the narrowest part of the strait, becoming the second vessel to do so.

This practice has sparked imitation in the shipping industry. Media analysis citing MarineTraffic data indicates that over the past week, at least 10 ships have altered their transponder signals to claim Chinese affiliation, including container ships and oil tankers.

Kpler analyst Matthew Wright states, “They can almost change anything—whatever they want to fill in. Crew members are trying to hide connections to certain ports, destinations, or nationalities, which involves some deception.”

He also notes that this kind of identity disguise to evade risks is not new, dating back to the Houthi attacks on commercial ships during the Red Sea tensions in 2023.

Despite the “Iron Lady” successfully transiting, Liberation Daily reports on March 7 that this remains a rare case, with no additional Chinese vessels following this method.

Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea exports hit record highs, but alternative routes face risks

In response to the blockade of the Persian Gulf export channel, Saudi Arabia is actively deploying alternative routes.

Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia is transporting crude via east-west pipelines to the Red Sea coast. In the first seven days of March, eight supertankers, each with a capacity of about 2 million barrels, were loaded at Yanbu and nearby Al Muajjiz ports. If this pace continues for the rest of the month, the monthly export volume could reach about 2.3 million barrels per day—about 50% higher than any single month’s Red Sea exports since late 2016.

According to Saudi Aramco, the rated capacity of the east-west pipeline is about 7 million barrels per day, but pre-war actual operation was less than half that capacity, leaving an estimated additional 5 million barrels per day of potential capacity. However, two major obstacles threaten this alternative:

1. The facilities have never operated at their rated capacity; whether they can sustain high-intensity operation long-term remains uncertain.
2. Major buyers of Saudi crude are concentrated in Asia, while most shipments from Yanbu are headed north toward the Suez Canal, with very limited southbound shipments to Asia—only one supertanker, “Arsan,” has headed south so far this month, destination Malaysia.

Meanwhile, Houthi forces have threatened to resume attacks on the southern Red Sea shipping after U.S. and Israeli threats against Iran, raising security concerns for the Red Sea route itself.

Goldman Sachs estimates that over the past four days, only about 900,000 barrels per day have been diverted via pipelines and ports like Fujairah, far below the potential capacity of around 3.6 million barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs also warns that recent attacks on Fujairah’s ports and storage facilities, fuel shortages (which usually rely on imports through the Strait of Hormuz), and previous pipeline attacks pose downside risks to diversion flows.

Supply chain pressures continue to mount

The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering chain reactions along the energy supply chain.

Bloomberg reports that with oil tankers unable to operate normally in and out of the Persian Gulf, offshore storage tanks are filling up, forcing some refineries to cut capacity. Iraq has led the effort to reduce oil output, followed by Kuwait and the UAE. As of last Friday, only nine supertankers remain idle in the Gulf, with extremely tight available capacity.

From a broader perspective, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil trade flows. Its continued closure has significant implications for the global energy market.

Although Saudi’s Red Sea alternative exports provide some buffer, Goldman Sachs’ estimates show a large gap between actual diversion volumes and potential capacity, compounded by security threats in the Red Sea. The global oil supply’s effective substitution remains limited.

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