Next week, the market will enter a phase of digesting macroeconomic data.

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.42 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 59%, or $1.42 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $312.8 billion, up 1.17% over the past 7 days, with USDT making up 58.81%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up slightly, with some down. Over the past 7 days: BTC increased by 5.96%, ETH by 2.83%, SOL by 2.31%, RIVER by 71.07%, and BARD by 76.66%.

This week, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $568 million; into US spot Ethereum ETFs, $23.1 million.

Market Forecast (March 9–15):

BTC: $65,000–75,000 ($65,000 is a key psychological and support level; if broken, it could decline further)

ETH: $1,900–2,180 (In extreme cases, it may test the previous low of $1,830)

SOL: $80–100 (SOL spot ETF has seen continuous 23 days of institutional net inflows)

Currently, the RSI index is 44.46 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 13 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 45 (neutral, consistent with last week).

Employment data unexpectedly fell short, sharply increasing expectations of rate cuts: US non-farm payrolls for February were far below expectations, marking the first negative growth since 2020. This report quickly boosted market bets on the Fed cutting rates within the year. In theory, rate cut expectations are bullish for risk assets, offering a glimmer of liquidity improvement for the crypto market.

At the same time, fears of stagflation have emerged, putting the market in a dilemma: however, things are not that simple. Almost simultaneously, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East caused international oil prices to surge, with Brent crude oil prices hitting a weekly record increase. The coexistence of shrinking employment, resilient wages, and soaring oil prices has sparked deep concerns about stagflation. Under this environment, Fed policy faces a dilemma, and risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) initially reacted but then came under pressure due to economic outlook worries. After the non-farm payrolls report, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices dropped over 4%.

Overall, next week the market will digest macroeconomic data. The biggest risk is the continued spread of stagflation fears, suppressing all risk assets; the biggest opportunity is that, once market sentiment stabilizes, the re-pricing of rate cut expectations could improve liquidity. SOL, due to its unique institutional fund inflows, may show relative strength.

Understand the Now

Weekly Major Events Recap

• Bitcoin rebounds strongly, breaking $73,000

This week, the crypto market experienced a V-shaped reversal, with Bitcoin rebounding sharply from weekend lows and breaking the $73,000 mark on March 5, hitting a recent high. On March 4, Bitcoin even surged past $71,000, triggering over 120,000 liquidations across the network.

• Ethereum returns above $2,100, mainstream coins generally rise

As a market indicator, Bitcoin’s stabilization directly activated market liquidity. ETH rebounded nearly 8% this week, successfully returning above $2,100. Other major coins like BNB, XRP, Solana also generally gained over 4%.

• Geopolitical turmoil tests Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative

Last weekend, escalating Middle East tensions caused Bitcoin to plunge to $63,000. However, this week, the market quickly recovered, even outperforming gold, which had fallen during the same period, leading some traders to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical unrest.

• Institutional funds flood in, over $680 million net inflow in two days

Wall Street’s influence has become a key factor in this rebound. Data shows that in just two trading days (March 2–3), net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $680 million. Precise accumulation in the $65,000–67,000 range is seen as a critical support for the rebound.

• Trump calls for advancing crypto legislation, CFTC responds positively

On March 4, former US President Trump urged Congress to expedite the passage of the Crypto Market Structure Bill. Subsequently, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig responded that the US perpetual futures linked to cryptocurrencies are about to be launched, and that the “CLARITY Act” should be passed soon. These regulatory signals boosted market sentiment.

• Macro economic data improves, supporting the crypto market

The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained above 50 for two consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic expansion. Analysts believe macroeconomic improvements tend to boost risk appetite, providing capital support for assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

• Public chain ecosystems make collective moves: Polygon hard fork and Astar voting

Major public chains saw ongoing developments this week. Polygon (MATIC) completed a hard fork upgrade on March 4. Astar Network (ASTR) launched a community vote on tokenomics 3.0 on March 3. Flare Networks also held a themed speech on XRP financial applications.

• Market focus shifts to altcoins, but broad rally faces resistance

With Bitcoin stabilizing, discussions about altcoin season heated up again. Some analysts point to technical signs of a breakout in altcoin market cap ratios. However, on-chain data shows about 38% of altcoins are still near historical lows, indicating weak market interest and potential supply overhang and liquidity constraints hindering a broad rally.

• Coinbase expands, opens stock trading to all US users

This week, Coinbase announced that stock trading is now available to all US users, with a partnership with Yahoo Finance allowing users to research assets on Yahoo and switch to Coinbase for trading with one click. This marks Coinbase’s further transition toward a comprehensive financial services platform.

Macroeconomic Data

• March 4: US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the largest since November 2025, surpassing expectations of 50,000; previous was 22,000.
• March 5: US weekly initial jobless claims as of Feb 28 totaled 213,000, the highest since the week of Feb 7, slightly below expectations of 215,000.
• March 6: US February unemployment rate was 4.4%, vs. expected 4.3%, previous 4.3%.
• March 6: According to CME “FedWatch,” the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is 3.3%; the chance of holding rates steady is 96.7%. The probability of holding rates steady until April is 86.4%, with a 13.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut and 0.4% for a 50 basis point cut.

ETFs

Between March 2 and March 6, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $568 million; as of March 6, Grayscale’s GBTC has outflows of $25.86 billion, with holdings of $10.65 billion, while BlackRock’s IBIT holds $52.9 billion. The total market cap of US spot Bitcoin ETFs is $90.366 billion.

US spot Ethereum ETF net inflow: $23.1 million.

Future Outlook

Industry Conferences

• EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. EthCC is one of Europe’s largest and oldest annual Ethereum conferences, focusing on technology and community development.
• Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will take place from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
• TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will be held from April 29 to 30, 2026, in Dubai, UAE.

Major Events

• March 11, 20:30: US releases February unadjusted CPI annual rate.
• March 12, 20:30: US releases weekly initial jobless claims (in ten-thousands).
• March 13, 20:30: US releases January core PCE price index annual rate.
• March 8, 15:00: Daylight Saving Time begins in North America, US stock market opens one hour earlier.
• UK Financial Conduct Authority launches stablecoin investigation, deadline for written submissions is March 11, 2026.

Token Unlocks

• Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on March 9, worth about $3.71 million, representing 5.18% of circulating supply.
• Linea (LINEA) will unlock 137 million tokens on March 10, worth about $4.44 million, representing 5.62%.
• Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on March 12, worth about $11.28 million, representing 0.69%.
• Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on March 15, worth about $5.08 million, representing 4.4%.
• Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.14 million tokens on March 15, worth about $3.75 million, representing 1%.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for your trading. Through our Weekly Insights and In-Depth Reports, we analyze market trends; with our exclusive segment “Hot Coins Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also host live sessions to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that with warm companionship and professional guidance, more investors can navigate cycles and seize Web3 opportunities.