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[Red Envelope] Emotional repair for two days, calculated electrical collaboration resonance, wait for disagreements to settle before finding another opportunity!
Market Review: [Taogu Ba]
This week’s market rotation was extremely fast. In the first half of the week, it was oil, and in the second half, it was electricity, with a confusing Micro concept sprinkled in. For ultra-short traders, this week was not easy; there was little room for growth, and even the single limit-up was reduced to only two boards. Many times, it was about low-position quick hands in quantitative trading to hit the first limit-up. There were three repair points this week: Monday, Thursday, and Friday. Let’s summarize our trading logic at these points.
Monday: Emotional recovery, buy low in Yunnan Energy, stop-loss on Chengxing, reduce positions and do T on Huasheng.
On Monday, market sentiment continued to recover. After Yunnan Energy strengthened further, if it continued to accelerate directly on Monday, it might weaken instead. Many leading stocks get wiped out in a waterfall after strong acceleration, like Baiyin Nonferrous. If there is a benign divergence and turnover, it can help complete the rotation with the emotional recovery. Huasheng followed Yunnan Energy, doing capacity arbitrage, so when Yunnan Energy opened with a healthy turnover, there was an urgent buy point; Huasheng also had a low-position buy point below. The main driver of sentiment recovery was oil, with the first limit-ups being relatively optimal intraday, but I generally avoid such news-sensitive themes, as they are easily affected by unexpected news, similar to nonferrous metals.
Tuesday: Divergence in sentiment, sell Huasheng to cut losses, take profits on Yunnan Energy at the high.
Sentiment had been recovering for two days, and on this day, divergence occurred as expected. On divergence days, it’s best to reduce trading activity, so the market was mostly empty. However, divergence days are not necessarily unwinnable; they just have weaker certainty. The relatively optimal strategy was to buy oil on the first and second boards, and the next day, based on the divergence strength of the sector, look for rotation opportunities.
Wednesday: Continued divergence in sentiment, mid-way Yunnan Energy.
Sentiment diverged for two consecutive days, and the resonance index dropped to a freezing point. This day was actually a good opportunity to take the lead at the freezing point, because divergence had already been released on Tuesday, making further divergence likely to lead to recovery within the day or the next. The relative optimal plays were oil’s core front-line intercontinental stocks affected by sentiment divergence, and after the power grid surged, reversing from low to high, Yunnan Energy showed resilience.
Thursday: Sentiment recovery, do T on Yunnan Energy.
During the auction phase, Yunnan Energy surged with a red opening, usually a buy point for weak-to-strong transition. But even if power continues to strengthen during the session, the sector cannot push Yunnan Energy higher, so on recovery days, there are no active intraday sell points. The relatively optimal plays were Micro concepts, guided by Minro, with widespread quantitative exploration. The moves were extremely aggressive, but ultimately, the quantitative strategies also faced backlash from consensus.
Friday: Continued sentiment recovery, sell Yunnan Energy.
Market sentiment continued to recover on Friday, mainly driven by chemical and power-electrical synergy themes. However, Yunnan Energy had no initiative after Thursday’s recovery day. Friday was expected to be a divergence day; Yunnan Energy initially showed a selling bias, but later had some buying points. Even if the index opened low and moved higher, the core issue remained Yunnan Energy’s lack of initiative. Sector explosions were still weak, so during sector divergence, the sector could easily collapse. The relatively optimal plays were the first boards of chemical, power-electrical synergy, and positional stocks.
Review of this week’s trades: I only traded two stocks, Huasheng and Yunnan Energy. In such a rapidly rotating market environment, the results were actually quite satisfactory—seeking steady progress. Often, it’s enough to capture a piece of the market within your own style, rather than expecting a stock to run from start to finish. Compound growth is about replicating this within different stocks.
Next week’s forecast:
Index environment: The market remains in a short-term oscillation structure, with a long-term slow bull trend. After continuous divergence, look for opportunities; be cautious near new highs, and wait until the index stabilizes above new highs before seeking new entries. During the meeting period, the market will mainly focus on stabilization until next Thursday.
Market profit structure: Over the past few weeks, the market’s high has been suppressed below five boards, with Yunnan Energy slightly stronger. During this high-pressure phase, relay trading is difficult. Sector first exposure remains the best choice, but sector first exposure is dominated by quantitative strategies, which require quick hands to hit the first limit-up. For example, Monday’s oil, Tuesday’s natural gas, Wednesday’s power grid, Thursday’s Micro, and Friday’s power-electrical synergy and chemical sectors. Some may say Micro concepts are risky, but looking at this week’s first exposures, Micro did not offer significant premiums. Over a longer period, the next-day premiums of sector first exposures are still likely to be successful trades.
Theme rhythm:
Power-electrical synergy: Intraday recovery, power has strengthened for three days, and with quantitative power on Friday, the sector can continue to explode. Monday’s divergence expectation, then observe strength and recognition of Hanlan divergence, whether it can resist decline. Also, Yunnan Energy pushed higher from a high position after being affected by sentiment divergence, requiring continued consolidation.
Chemical: Intraday recovery, sector’s first board opportunity, but when the sector previously reached high levels, it tends to weaken. Currently, only oversold rebounds remain, so sustainability is questionable.
Oil: Sector continued divergence on Friday, with each divergence on Wednesday and Thursday ending with late-day recovery, and Friday’s divergence intensifying. The only downside is the unpredictability of news, which can affect the sector’s rhythm. Oil futures rose again, so Monday’s sector is expected to recover normally. Capacity intercontinental stocks and sentiment are key.
Sentiment rhythm: The market recovered for two consecutive days on Thursday and Friday. Caution is needed on Monday during divergence. After divergence, Tuesday and Wednesday will have a recovery node. It’s not too late to find themes to trade; the market only has a few sectors with sustained momentum. Either focus on these sectors during their recovery or look for theme first exposures to hit the first boards.
Core stock analysis for popularity:
GCL System Integration: Independent stock, no broad sector fermentation, trend expected.
Jinkai New Energy: Rapid shift from weak to strong, power-electrical synergy fermentation. As a leading stock at a low position, Monday can only expect further strength; if it doesn’t accelerate, it’s below expectations and may surge in volume.
Tuowei Information: Low-position power, caught by late-day funds, often used to create Monday’s premium expectation through weekend sentiment. If it exceeds expectations, it may weakly shift from weak to strong—watch for trend.
Intercontinental Oil & Gas: On Friday, a big gap down caused sector divergence to continue. Core oil content, with recovery expected Monday following sector trends, influenced by external news.
Yunnan Energy Holdings: Power-electrical synergy exploded on Friday. As a high-flyer, it was pushed up but lacked initiative, repeatedly exploding. The late surge by Tuowei helped it close the gap. Future trend expectations: lack of initiative on recovery days is a major flaw.
China Electric Power: Core power capacity, trend expected, following power sector, with divergence expected Monday.
Huasheng Tiancheng: Followed power-electrical theme on Friday, but its position within the sector is weakening. Late-day surge by Tuowei reduced its recognition. No active points without trend.
Hanlan Co.: Capacity with continuous limit-ups, funds use it for positional turnover, trend expected. Likely to follow sector divergence on Monday; if space opens up, it may attempt a break and re-entry.
GCL Energy Science & Technology: Power-electrical synergy, quick strength from low levels, can continue to strengthen Monday, but volume must surpass Friday’s to avoid increased sector divergence.
Here is the new practical logic analysis for everyone. Eight years of experience and understanding are precious! Hope brothers can gain something from it! Lastly, I wish everyone in the market good luck. If you support me, please like, tip, and cheer—let’s grow together and become silver and gold fans soon. Your enthusiasm and growth motivate my updates! Wishing everyone a prosperous week ahead! Evening updates on daily ideas.
Thanks to all the traders supporting with tips and encouragement! Deep bonds last longer—let’s move forward together!
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