"1011 Crash Insider Whale" Agent: If supply shocks persist, oil prices may face greater upward pressure

Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 8th, “1011 Collapse Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted on the X platform that historically, there has been a clear correlation between oil supply gaps and rising oil prices: a supply gap of about 7% in 1973 drove oil prices up by approximately 300%, a gap of about 5% in 1979 led to a 150% increase, and a 6% gap in 1990 resulted in about a 130% rise.

Currently, the potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz is estimated at about 15%, far higher than historical cases. Most institutional models assume this shock will last only “a few days to a few weeks,” but almost no models expect the shock to last for several months. In reality, once the market’s consensus on the duration is broken, more long positions may be forced into the market, further driving up oil prices.