Iran War: How Long Could It Last? Morgan Stanley Offers Analysis

Investing.com — Morgan Stanley analysts say the duration of the ongoing conflict involving Iran may depend on several military and strategic factors. They suggest the operation could last for weeks but might be extended depending on on-the-ground developments.

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The bank notes that the U.S. government has indicated that military actions could be measured in weeks rather than months, although President Donald Trump also stated that the conflict could last “until the mission is complete.”

Morgan Stanley states that a key factor influencing the timeline will be a clearer prioritization of government objectives. The president has outlined goals including eliminating Iran’s missile stockpiles, weakening its navy, and curbing regional proxy activities.

Analysts say that broader ambitions like regime change may require a longer timeframe compared to more limited targets such as destroying nuclear infrastructure. Moves toward diplomatic re-engagement or negotiations could also signal a shorter conflict duration.

Another factor is Iran’s missile capabilities and the pace of weapon use during the conflict. It is estimated that Iran possessed about 2,000 ballistic missiles last year and more Shahed-136 drones, with approximately 1,200 missiles reportedly launched since the conflict began.

In terms of defense, the U.S. and its allies heavily rely on PAC-3 interceptors, with around 600 produced by 2025, indicating that stockpiles and supply needs could influence the duration of active combat.

Morgan Stanley also emphasizes that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical variable. The bank previously believed that a complete closure of the waterway was unlikely due to economic risks faced by Iran and potential disruptions to major clients like China.

However, recent developments suggest shipping through the strait has slowed significantly. U.S. officials have indicated they may provide insurance guarantees and naval escort for oil shipments, which could reduce but not eliminate supply risks.

Finally, analysts say that the frequency of missile exchanges, airstrikes, and new offensives will help indicate whether the conflict is escalating or moving toward de-escalation. Reduced attacks or renewed diplomatic engagement, including mediation through third countries, could signal a shorter conflict, while expanding proxy actions in the region may suggest a more prolonged confrontation.

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