3.7 Objective Data Review Post Now alone, I gaze into the dim yellow, pondering both the rise and the fall

[Stock Forum]

Hello to all new followers, I am your treasure hunter blogger Wolf Bao.

Here, I share daily insights, market judgments, and valuable content.

Feel free to browse the valuable posts and watch the videos I’ve recorded with great effort on emotional cycles.

I believe everyone will gain something, find their own treasure. Muah! Let’s keep moving forward, never forget our original intention.

For those who prefer written reviews, you’ve been silently watching every day. Not contributing or exerting effort.

Honestly, the data feedback, video reviews, and follower growth are better than the written version.

I’ll do my best to keep things balanced, mainly posting long articles on weekends for now.

This article should normally be published before the market opens, but at that time we are easily disturbed by news.

So let’s just consider that there’s no holiday interference, and the market opens on Monday, objectively analyzing Friday’s market and expectations.

For cycle reviews, we can freely hypothesize and speculate, commonly called YY (wishful thinking).

For data reviews, I try to be objective and rigorous, showing everyone what happened this week.

$1

Index Data
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Exchange Rate**

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This is one of the basic conditions for a long-term slow bull market, but not a necessary one.

Last year, after we shut down the northbound data, we no longer knew the extent of foreign capital inflows.

Margin Financing and Securities Lending Data

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2.63 trillion yuan

Significant outflows on Tuesday, started to flow back on Thursday and Friday

Index

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The market has been continuously suppressed for two days by the top-level trapped chips peak.

The recent rebounds are all low-volume rebounds, weak rebounds.

Indicating that funds are not ready yet, returning to a bullish index alignment.

The first window is from 3.11 to 12, after the Two Sessions, with a debate about what to speculate on.

Second, geopolitical tensions will gradually ease starting the second week.

No matter how many weeks it takes, the first week is the most intense, then gradually weakening, until the market becomes desensitized.

So currently, the main market is in a state of indecision, neither rising nor falling.

In the medium to long term, the market will inevitably break through 4200 upward.

Short-term fluctuations and entanglements are unavoidable.

Those bullish on the market favor tech stocks, while those bearish favor commodities; no one can convince the other.

Profit Effect Trend
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Strong Recovery**
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From a macro perspective, the profit effect trend has been oscillating within a box pattern.

Since 1.21, it has not broken through the upper boundary of the oscillation. Every time it reaches the upper boundary, it pulls back.

Earlier, it was a Salvador-style continuous limit-down retreat; this time, will it break through or come back again?

It’s uncertain, but considering that last time chemical and this time oil stocks had a wave of follow-up gains without forming a Salvador event,

Either a breakout upward or, if there are disagreements, a controlled downward force.

Continuous Board and Space and Bias
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Continuous Board Tier List**
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Loss effects are controllable, no consecutive limit-downs.

Profit effect is weak, with a maximum of 4 consecutive boards this week.

Most of the time, 3 boards, and one day with 2 boards.

But that doesn’t mean much; we’ve discussed this in weekend reviews.

The style here is trend-focused, with continuous boards as a supplement
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This is normal**

Moreover, Yunnan Energy Holdings has already demonstrated a wave of continuous boards.

Breaking the boards and continuing the trend is the market’s mainstream.

So although the maximum number of boards this week is only 4, many stocks that broke the 3-board pattern then moved into an upward trend, mostly in commodities.

The reason why the height of continuous boards can’t go higher is that they are mostly old-cycle stocks with follow-up gains
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Naturally, their heights are limited.**

Let’s look at the trending high-level stocks:

Excluding TIANZHONG Precision Machinery, a big institutional stock,

Others are mainly in the commodities sector:

Zhangyuan Tungsten, Tongyuan Petroleum, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Jinniu Chemical, Shandong Molong

and in power grid sector:

Yuneng Holdings, China Xidian, Yinneng Power, Ankou Smart Electric, Han Cable.

Bapu-Lovov’s Perspective on Continuous Boards (Will be updated regularly, don’t ask why it’s called this)

Baby of the big baby

Wang Li Security, Shun Na Shares, Han Cable

Others are trash.

Theme Cycle
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Commercial aerospace, Salvador post, relay-type pomelo all disappeared.

The market is now fully dominated by quantitative strategies, making relay plays even harder.

Because quant strategies are based on news hot spots to trigger low-level follow-up gains,

All are wave-like themes, with strong single-line momentum, arbitrage, and central capacity.

But they can only sustain a strong, crazy main upward phase, then disagreements lead to a split.

The only sustained theme is the trend-led main upward market driven by institutional leadership.

Jinhaitong is based on the logic of domestic advanced process expansion, continuously fermenting in a segmented follow-up.

Then, after breaking the position, it separates out Longfei Optical Fiber.

Longfei represents overseas computing power, Nvidia, upstream supply chain logic.

And each segment continues to ferment, with core trending stocks in each:

PCB, electronics, macro and tech;

CPO, Tanfeng Communications;

PCB drill bits, Xianglu Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten;

Optical modules, chemical tech;

Thursday’s large-scale fermentation of mic LED, CPO, etc.

And so on.

As Longfei Optical Fiber begins to decline and undergo internal segmentation, some stocks still attempt to break through.
But if Longfei’s decline ends and it begins to repair, then if it starts a second decline,

there will be new tech trend leaders diverging from it.

Just like when Longfei separated from Nvidia’s overseas computing chain,

Effective separation usually occurs during the second decline of Jinhaitong.

This is the internal transition between tech sectors.

Let’s see who is trying to connect with Nvidia’s upstream industry chain, representing overseas computing power.

Tech can be split into two directions:

Domestic computing power and overseas computing power.

Overseas computing power is now more focused on smart grids and power generation equipment exports.

Domestic computing power is the strongest in integrated computing and power.

We can understand the period from 2.24 to 2.7 as Phase 1.

The big market drop on 3.3 is seen as a divergence point.

From 3.4 to 3.6, it’s understood as the profit effect transitioning into the second main upward phase.

In the first phase, domestic computing power and smart grid exports are weak.

During this period, overseas computing power, Nvidia, and the industry chain are strong.

No matter what subdivisions, they all can infer Longfei’s high oscillation.

Even if Longfei later falters,

There are also macro and tech segments, like Wanhua Chemical and Tungsten, maintaining high levels.

They are high-level proactive signals.

Another is the chemical sector, which rebounded strongly after the holiday, especially phosphates, represented by Jinjing.

This is the understanding of the current situation.

Post-holiday, starting from 2.24, chemical stocks are the strongest, mainly due to phosphate chemicals, represented by Jinjing.

Then, after a wave of selling in A-shares and the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, oil stocks surged.

After the surge, the market rebounded strongly in chemical stocks, beginning the second main upward phase.

But most of these are low-level stocks with strong feedback; high-level stocks are not actively rising.

For example, Jinniu Chemical was driven by sentiment and sector momentum.

The chemical sector index is currently second only to the smart grid and power sectors in strength.

Much stronger than the computing index.

So the conclusion is:
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On Friday, chemical stocks peaked; on Monday, expect divergence and split.**
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Oil and gas stocks, on Friday, divergence faded; on Monday, expect recovery.**
The strength of the recovery depends on the magnitude; weak recovery means underperformance.

Chemical stocks: Jinniu Chemical, Weixing Chemical
Shipping: China Shipping
Oil: Shandong Molong, Intercontinental Oil & Gas

Data Says
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Straightforward conclusion**

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Excluding Wednesday, daily data generally reflects divergence.

But the divergence is not strong; quantitative strategies are constantly fermenting new profit effects.

Always offset by loss effects.

Loss effects are beginning to converge.

Now it’s about whether profit effects can continue.

If you want to learn data review, check out the data input and application of data review.

Summarize what happened today:

Strong stocks fantasizing ┗|｀O′|┛

Core emotional stocks

The ugliest B stocks

Loss tags

The most A stocks

The most explosive

The most eye-catching stock

Yuneng Holdings

A potential new limit-up on Monday, possibly triggering a 3-day 20% deviation.

Using delisting threats to scare people, not sure if it will delist.

Monday is a key emotional anchor.

Although it’s been passive and weak, the leading stocks have entered the third stage.

It’s mainly driven by sentiment and sector momentum.

As long as there’s no negative feedback, even if it continues to be red and break boards, it’s positive feedback.

Han Cable

30 days up 148%, and on Monday, it hit the limit-up again, with a 3-day deviation of about 20%.

No major resistance, just see if it can truly separate from Longfei Optical Fiber, becoming a new trend leader.

Monday’s Forecast

From an emotional perspective, there’s expectation of divergence, no expectation of disagreement.

Whether this divergence can be digested intra-day depends on the market’s mood.

If the market is slightly bullish, divergence won’t turn into a split.

If the market turns bearish again, divergence will evolve into a split.

Verification
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Positive feedback**

Yuneng Holdings

Han Cable

Jinniu Chemical

Negative feedback anchoring

Response

Currently, the main trend is upward, driven by quant funds.

No “pomelo” (relay) plays, only quant-driven funds.

So the rotation is very fast.

Monday is critical; whether it can enter a new main upward trend depends on whether the electric power and power grid sectors can lead.

Timing is crucial now; no matter the theme, good timing means gains, bad timing means losses.

In trend-driven themes, the most taboo is chasing highs and selling lows; buy on dips, sell on rallies.

But the premise is that your expectation is that the trend remains good and not over.

Just like Longfei Optical Fiber, if the leader is clear, just buy the leader.

Later, it didn’t move much.

Everyone knows it’s the leader, but after three waves of rise and five waves of structure, high-level oscillation and divergence or a first decline are inevitable.

What’s the point? How much more can it rise? Whether the trend remains intact is uncertain.

Buying on a low on Friday might be okay, aiming for a rebound, but if the rebound is weak, you should exit.

So, look for opportunities in the new trend before the five-wave structure is complete.

And the expected direction, right?

Monday’s oil sector should open high; as long as futures don’t plunge at open, it’s a good start.

But this is a preemptive feast; if you’re optimistic about this direction, you should have bought the divergence decline on Friday.

On Friday morning, I said to look favorably on oil; if the divergence declines, buy on dips.

On Monday, regardless of strength, a rebound correction is expected. The strength of this correction is uncertain but likely.

So, the good side is to eliminate weak stocks and keep strong ones on Monday.

If futures surge, the correction in this sector on Monday will have no expectation gap; the correction should be normal, and weak stocks should exit.

The domestic computing power sector is really weak; the rhythm has been unclear.

It depends on whether Saturday’s hot spots and Monday’s large orders can confirm a big single order, mainly targeting Tuowei Information.

For smart grid, Monday’s normal expectation is divergence; if Shun Na opens with large volume, it’s a divergence expectation.

Whether to buy into the divergence of the smart grid sector depends on whether it can eventually transition into a main upward phase in the third stage.

That’s up to individual judgment.

More detailed verification and responses are in the morning session.

For those who want to learn deeply, check the blogger’s homepage

Below are many publicly available articles on valuable content.

Content Collection (a large number of valuable articles) directory

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLtZQLAfB
Historical review of emotional cycles, learn from history to understand rise and fall, directory

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLnbweBJA
Emotional cycle video explanation, everyone says it’s good, maybe you should watch it too?

https://www.tgb.cn/a/22nLmcWyh3R

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