Today is the Lantern Festival on the 15th

📊 March 3, 2026 BTC Technical Analysis Strategy

Today is the Lantern Festival. BTC surged higher and then pulled back to fluctuate between 68,500 and 69,500. The 70,000 level faces significant selling pressure, and the technical outlook shows weakness and consolidation. The strategy is primarily to adopt a cautious short position, with some low-level long positions for trading. Strict position control is essential, and caution is advised against sudden spikes and breakouts.

🎯 Key Levels (Precise Points)

- Strong Resistance: $69,000–$69,500 (Double top neckline + yesterday’s high; invalidation of breakout signals a bullish move)
- Immediate Resistance: $68,500 (Hourly chart upper boundary, first short-term resistance)
- Strong Support: $67,500–$68,000 (Previous resistance turned support after breakout yesterday)
- Extreme Support: $65,000 (Daily strong support; if broken, accelerate to $63,000)

📈 Technical and Capital Market Outlook

- Trend Structure: Daily chart shows a rebound followed by a pullback; 4-hour MACD bearish momentum converging; RSI neutral oscillation; Bollinger Bands narrowing, indicating short-term rebound weakness.
- Market Sentiment: Low trading volume, neutral funding rates, balanced longs and shorts, cautious leverage.
- Macro Risks: FOMC policy speeches approaching; geopolitical conflicts triggering rebalancing of funds; volatility prone to amplification.

🚀 Intraday Trading Strategies (Segmented Execution)

- Cautious Short Positions (Priority)
Entry: Resistance in the $68,500–$69,000 range
Stop Loss: $69,500 (Invalidation of strong resistance breakout)
Targets: $67,500 → $66,000 → $65,000

- Quick Long Positions (Fast Entry and Exit)
Entry: Stabilization around $67,500–$68,000
Stop Loss: $67,000 (Break below support)
Targets: $68,500–$69,000

- Breakout Follow-up (Risk Management Priority)
Bullish: Volume breakout above $69,500, then retest at $69,000 for long entry, stop loss at $68,500, target $70,500–$71,000.
Bearish: Break below $65,000, observe and reassess near $63,000, stop loss at $64,500.

⚠ Risk Management

- Position Management: Short-term single position ≤10%, total position ≤30%, avoid heavy all-in trades.
- Stop Loss Discipline: Strictly adhere to stop levels, avoid "holding through" to prevent sudden losses.
- News Response: Pause new entries before and after FOMC speeches; if volatility exceeds $500, reduce positions to hedge risks.

💡 Summary

The main trend is range-bound oscillation, with a focus on selling high and buying low within the key zones of 68,500 and 67,500. The weak market sentiment remains unchanged. Rebound strategies should mainly target resistance levels for short positions. Support levels should be protected before considering low-level longs. Be cautious of false signals and potential breakouts.