Currently, Ethereum is caught in a tug-of-war between a "fundamentally bullish" outlook and "short-term price weakness." Directly "bottom fishing" carries higher risks; a more rational approach is to treat key price zones indicated by the market as "observation areas" and wait for clear stabilization signals.

Potential Observation Zones for Different Strategies

Trading Cycle Core Logic Potential Observation/Entry Zone Key Signals to Confirm
Short-term/ Swing Trading Play for technical rebounds, higher risk, quick in and out. $2,850 - $2,920 Price shows stabilization patterns on the hourly chart (such as double bottoms, bullish engulfing) within this zone, accompanied by increased trading volume.
Mid-term Positioning Build positions gradually around key support zones to average costs. Consider deploying in batches near key support levels like $2,850, $2,750. Daily closing prices can stay above support levels, and on-chain data shows whale addresses stopping selling or starting to accumulate.
Long-term Investment Ignore short-term fluctuations, invest based on long-term value or wait for clearer trend reversals. No specific "best price"; use periodic fixed-amount investments or wait for weekly trend confirmation. Price weekly close stabilizes above $3,400 (indicating strength), or wait for macro positives like Fed rate cuts to materialize.

Risk Management Principles to Follow

Regardless of which zone you choose, the following principles are crucial:

1. Always use stop-loss orders: When going long, set stop-loss below your supported zone (e.g., if entering near $2,850, set stop-loss at $2,800 or $2,780).
2. Never bet all your funds: Especially when using a "batch deployment" strategy, plan your investment proportion carefully to leave room for further declines.
3. Pay attention to market resonance: Relying on a single signal (such as price reaching a level) is less reliable. The ideal entry is a confluence of multiple signals such as "price reaching key support," "on-chain data showing large funds stopping outflows or starting to flow in," and "market showing extreme fear and greed index" among others.

Current Risks to Watch Out For

· Downside risk: If the price **effectively breaks below $2,850** (e.g., daily close below this level), it could further decline to the $2,600 - $2,700 range.
· Upside resistance: Even if a rebound occurs, the $3,050 - $3,080 zone has become a strong resistance area, and initial attempts to reach this zone are likely to face rejection.