#比特币周期规律 Fidelity's latest outlook is here again, this time focusing on national-level FOMO—more countries may include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves. It sounds impressive, but ultimately it's just the old supply and demand relationship: increased demand leads to rising prices.

However, what's interesting here is whether the four-year cycle still exists. Fidelity's people say that fear and greed emotions are still present, so the cycle hasn't completely disappeared. But whether this stage is the start of a new bear market or a bull market correction, honestly, no one can say for sure. Getting a clear answer will have to wait until the second half of 2026, which is quite ridiculous.

My feeling is that institutional entry is indeed accelerating, and traditional fund managers starting to buy Bitcoin has become a fact. But their statement about "touching the surface" seems to be more about managing expectations for subsequent price increases. Short-term retail investors seeking quick gains should be more cautious, while long-term holders probably don't need to worry too much about these cycles. After all, no matter how clear the pattern is, it can't compare to the real-world fluctuations of cold, hard cash.