#预测市场 Recently, I looked at the outlooks from major institutions for 2026, and one detail kept me pondering—almost everyone is optimistic about the prediction market. BlackRock, Fidelity, Coinbase, a16z, institutions with different stances have rarely reached a consensus, predicting that trading volume in the prediction market will further expand, and there’s even a possibility that weekly trading volume could reach tens of billions of dollars.

This is indeed very attractive, but I want to remind you that "a good outlook" and "suitable for you" are two different things. I have seen too many investors rush in because they see a hot track, only to end up losing everything in complex derivatives trading. While prediction markets are innovative, they are fundamentally a form of leveraged trading, with volatility and risk coexisting.

If you are interested in this direction, my advice is: start by understanding its mechanism, rather than jumping in with funds right away. Use small amounts of capital to experience it and see if you can handle this high-frequency, high-volatility trading style. More importantly, ask yourself what percentage of your assets this money represents—no emerging hot spot is worth destroying the position structure you’ve painstakingly built.

The opportunities in 2026 are indeed there, but steady gains often come from not being knocked over when the wind blows at the peak.