#预测市场 Seeing institutions promote the prediction market to expand to billions of dollars in trading volume by 2026, I have to pour some cold water on that. I've heard this logic too many times — whenever a new sector is about to rise, a large influx of capital and narratives follow. But the real question is: how deep is the liquidity trap in prediction markets, and how badly will retail investors get cut?

The Coinbase report states that prediction market aggregators will become the dominant interface, and changes in tax policies will drive users toward derivatives markets. It sounds reasonable, but I recall a reality: when trading volume explodes, it is often accompanied by price manipulation, information asymmetry, and whale manipulations. Prediction markets seem transparent, but in reality, participants have vastly different information advantages — institutional players with data analysis capabilities and financial strength are like high-dimensional attacks on retail investors.

My experience is that whenever a category is favored by institutions, you should be immediately cautious. This doesn’t mean institutional judgment is necessarily wrong, but their entry timing is often later than retail investors. However, they quickly harvest profits using their scale and tools, leaving ordinary people to take the final hit. If the trading volume of prediction markets really expands tenfold, first consider whether you have the ability to survive in it, rather than just focusing on returns.

My advice: if you want to participate in prediction markets, first figure out where your information sources are worse than institutions, then decide how much to invest. Don’t be brainwashed by the narrative of "new sector explosion," as that is often the most dangerous time.