#永续合约交易 The changes in perpetual contracts in 2025 are truly worth paying close attention to. From the data, the daily trading volume of on-chain derivatives has already surpassed $1 trillion, and open interest remains stable at around $15.4 billion — this is no longer the stage of "usable products," but a genuine move into infrastructure.

What excites me most is the shift in the competitive landscape. Platforms like Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Aster have formed a tripartite rivalry. No longer are they competing solely on subsidies and listing speed; instead, they are vying to see whose depth is more stable and whose liquidation order under extreme market conditions is more reliable. This indicates that market maturity is rapidly increasing — risk pricing has upgraded from "luck-based" to "engineering-based."

Another key point is that the volatility of perpetual contracts is increasingly coupled with macro variables. When risk appetite in the US stock market shifts, the on-chain deleveraging rhythm follows suit. This is not a coincidence but a reflection of real capital flows. When interest rate expectations reverse, on-chain and off-chain liquidations tend to synchronize more closely — meaning perpetual trading is no longer just an "internal crypto game," but integrated into the global risk asset pricing system.

Looking ahead to the next year, I expect this sector to evolve in two directions: first, platforms will continue to optimize risk control frameworks and capital efficiency, making depth thicker and liquidations smoother; second, trading volume will keep growing, but the Matthew effect will also strengthen — ultimately, those that can withstand stress tests and remain standing are likely to be the winners. Whether new entrants can move from a phase of burning money to drive volume toward sustainable retention depends critically on whether their risk frameworks are truly robust.

This process is essentially the upgrade of crypto finance from "concept" to "real infrastructure" — each step tests whether decentralization can truly support the risk and liquidity demands of mainstream finance.