A major news story has recently spread in the financial circle: the U.S. Supreme Court is about to rule on whether the White House can directly dismiss Federal Reserve Board members. This seemingly administrative power dispute is actually linked to the very foundation of the entire financial system.

The seriousness of the issue lies here—if the ruling favors the White House, the independence that the Fed has carefully maintained for a century could collapse in an instant. Powell's position also becomes unstable. UBS explicitly warned that when Powell's term expires in 2026, a "bloodbath" may unfold. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice is exerting pressure on the Fed through other investigations, putting the credibility of the dollar to the test.

Market reactions have already been quite intuitive. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in January has fallen to just 5%, indicating that market certainty about future policy directions is sharply declining. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, cracks within international alliances, and several countries quietly advancing de-dollarization are putting noticeable pressure on the dollar.

The crypto world is especially sensitive to these signals. Ethereum's staked amount has already hit a new all-time high, accounting for 30% of the total supply, reflecting strong confidence in long-term holdings. Bitcoin ETF performance is also rewriting the traditional four-year cycle logic, with three major factors in 2026—macro policies, geopolitical situations, and capital flows—likely to dominate the market trend.

If the Fed truly loses its independence, turbulent U.S. stock and bond markets may push more funds into cryptocurrencies as a new safe haven. A judicial ruling concerning dollar hegemony could fundamentally change the flow of global capital.