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#数字资产市场动态 $DUSK The previously sealed Federal Reserve meeting minutes from 5 years ago finally reveal the true decision-making process at the time.
After the full records from September 2020 were released, the market finally understood—how "stubborn" he was back then. Zero interest rates, unconditional commitments, and aggressively pushing forward with a new guidance framework. Opposing voices? Ignored. Two Fed chairs objected on the spot, and several officials expressed concerns? All suppressed.
Here's the issue: The reason Powell was so persistent was fundamentally due to concerns that the newly adjusted policy framework would lose credibility, and he was determined to lock in the "2% inflation + full employment" pledge. The result? In September 2020, inflation was only 1.3%, and the Fed was optimistic, predicting it wouldn't reach 2% until 2023. Who would have thought that inflation would soar the following year, hitting 7.2% by mid-2022? And because the Fed was locked into its "commitment," it only started raising interest rates in March 2022—by then, it was already too late.
If only we had known, why did we do it in the first place? Powell himself publicly admitted in November 2022 that he would never make such interest rate commitments again.
Looking at the crypto market—these five years of policy swings, from ultra-loose to aggressive rate hikes, and now to expectations of rate cuts, each shift has been reshaping asset valuation logic. The Fed's policy swings have a profound impact on the valuation anchors of crypto assets.
So, what should you choose now? Hedging or deploying? The key still depends on whether the Fed's subsequent policy pace will shift again. The exposure of these records at least clarifies the logic behind key decisions during the pandemic—sometimes, stubborn policy commitments turn out to be the biggest hidden danger.