2026-01-19 15:00:28

#数字资产市场动态 Will 2026 be the turning point for the crypto market? Let's look at Wintermute's latest market diagnosis.

Reflecting on 2025, the big rally we expected didn't happen; instead, we saw the entire market undergoing profound changes. The four-year cycle pattern? It has been broken. The market no longer moves up and down on a timetable but is playing a brutal "liquidity chase game"—funds flow where the gains are, and that’s where the concentration happens.

The most painful phenomenon is: Bitcoin rises, but Ethereum doesn't benefit; Ethereum rises, and altcoins are even more disconnected. Retail investors have simply shifted to the stock market, and money in the crypto space is increasingly concentrated in top assets. This has directly split the market into two worlds—big coins are well-fed, while small coins are losing opportunities to participate. The rebound cycle has shrunk from 60 days to 20 days, making entry easier to get caught in a trap. This "fast in, fast out" rhythm leaves many exhausted.

So how can we break this "head dominance" situation? Wintermute offers three possible solutions:

1. **Expand ETF product lines**—Currently, ETFs are mainly focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Covering more high-quality assets could give investors the chance to diversify their funds into other sectors.

2. **Breakout of leading assets**—A strong rally in Bitcoin or Ethereum could attract off-market funds back in through profit effects.

3. **Retail investors' renewed attention**—Funds pulled from the stock market and new entrants returning their focus to crypto.

In short, whether 2026 can break out of this dilemma depends on whether these three catalysts can "release" liquidity. If these conditions are not met, the market will continue to concentrate on the top assets, and the survival space for small coins will become even more limited.

$BTC $ETH

BTC0.58%

ETH1.3%

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WhaleWatcher

· 20h ago

Honestly, this set of theories sounds pretty exciting, but I'm still a bit skeptical. ETF expansion, retail influx... they all sound great, but where is the real money that can be invested?

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DAOTruant

· 01-20 07:07

To be honest, the cycle theory should have been discarded long ago. Now it's just a game of capital.

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LoneValidator

· 01-20 06:42

This cycle theory should have died long ago. Now it's a game of funds, nothing to do with the timetable.

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AirdropHunterWang

· 01-19 15:28

It sounds like the big players are having a feast while we're just sipping soup... Rebound for 20 days and then we have to run, who can keep up with this pace?

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AirdropGrandpa

· 01-19 15:21

Honestly, the cycle pattern has long been outdated; a four-year cycle is just nonsense. The current game rules have completely changed, and small cryptocurrencies really have no way out.

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WagmiOrRekt

· 01-19 15:20

Honestly, playing crypto now is just betting on where liquidity will flow. The cycle theory is long outdated. Don't expect any ETF expansion; the situation where the big players take the meat and retail investors drink the soup won't change.

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BlockDetective