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Let's take a look at the stock picking abilities of those US stock content creators over the weekend. Our screening approach is simple—exclude the overall market movement itself (Beta returns), and focus only on whether they can outperform or underperform expectations (Alpha excess returns).
The backtesting logic is as follows:
• Enter at the opening price on the next trading day
• Hold for a fixed period of 7 trading days
• No stop-loss or take-profit throughout, let the data speak
The core metric is Alpha—that is, the actual stock price change minus the S&P 500 return. How to calculate it correctly? Two scenarios:
✅ Stocks that are bullish and ultimately outperform the market = correct judgment
✅ Stocks that are bearish and ultimately underperform the market = also correct judgment
This methodology effectively filters out luck factors from simply following the market's rise and fall, helping us identify high-quality content creators with genuine stock research ability. The full December performance report is out, and interested friends can compare each blogger’s actual performance with expected deviations.