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There's a signal recently sweeping the crypto community — over the past three months, the Bitcoin derivatives market has been undergoing a frantic deleveraging.
Here's the data: since October last year, Bitcoin open interest (OI) has dropped by 31%. This isn't minor fluctuation; it's the market actively clearing out accumulated excessive leverage. When CryptoQuant's data was released, analyst Darkos1 commented that historically, every such deleveraging phase has often corresponded with a significant market bottom.
Why is this so important? Simply put, the more leverage there is, the more intense the chain reaction of liquidations. Now that leverage is receding, it's like the market has had a time bomb dismantled. Without the pressure of excessive leverage, once sentiment shifts, the rebound could be more pure and powerful.
Of course, this logic relies on a premise — that Bitcoin doesn't continue to fall. If the bear market hasn't fully bottomed out, open interest might continue to shrink, and the deleveraging and market correction would have to play out again. But in current expectations, this three-month-long deleveraging wave is likely a bottom signal. Once the market structure resets, the signs of a bull market may not be far off.