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The current trend of Bitcoin can be summarized in one sentence: after the rise, it's digesting; don't rush to chase higher.
As of now, BTC is quoted at 96,285, with an active range between 95,777 and 97,924. From the overall rhythm, the proactive momentum of the short-term bulls is clearly waning. Although the medium-term trend remains intact, it has entered a consolidation and frustrating phase.
**What’s happening on the short-term?**
The 15-minute and 1-hour RSI have both retraced to around 44, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from "I want to push" to "Let’s wait and see." More importantly, trading volume—over the last 5 hourly candles—has shrunk from 791 down to 214. Although the price rebounded from 95,985 to over 96,200, this rebound is completely unsupported by volume.
There's also a critical detail: this wave of rebound has failed to break back above the MA7 (96,424). This indicates that the short-term bullish momentum has been taken away.
Focus on one key number for the short term—95,777. Once this level is effectively broken, the short-term bulls will likely all cut losses. At that point, it won’t be a slow decline but a passive search for the next support.
**What about the medium-term?**
The 4-hour and daily RSI are both stuck between 74-76, meaning the trend logic is still intact but overheated. The daily chart has rallied four consecutive bullish candles, from 90,504 to 97,924, an increase of over 8%. Such a trend would be strange if it didn’t correct. Fortunately, the structure remains solid—price is firmly above the daily MA7 (93,158) and MA25 (90,429), so the medium-term bullish framework is not broken.
The key to survival in the medium-term is clear:
- If 93,158 is not broken—that’s a normal correction after an upward trend.
- Reclaim 97,500 with volume—that could be a sign to push for new highs.
**How to operate practically?**
Short-term: Don’t chase. With volume shrinking so much, the highest levels are most vulnerable to being ground down.
Medium-term: The trend is still there, but give it time for profit-taking to play out.
Before the range is established, the biggest mistake is to act impulsively. Let the market decide itself; it’s a hundred times safer than guessing based on feelings.
Watch whether the price can hold above 95,777 on the downside, and whether it can break through 97,500 with volume on the upside—that’s the key.