Is it still worth刷不刷? The data reveals the harsh truth

After analyzing the airdrop data from the past half month (January 1st–14th), the conclusion is very clear. In simple terms: for users with lower balance scores, currently investing a lot of effort and funds on Alpha offers extremely low cost-effectiveness.
Core conclusion: Your “balance score” determines your gameplay
Balance 1 point: Recommend “lying flat” or退出, basically anti-撸
After a full month of刷满, profits are minimal, essentially performing “volunteer labor” for the platform.
Balance 2 points: Can low-loss “摸奖,” but expectations must be significantly lowered
Only encountering a “big毛” worth over $50 per single can potentially break even.
Balance 3 points and above: Still able to share a slice of the pie, but unlikely to be a main income source
Returns are mainly supplementary, unable to “feast” on it.
Data speaks: Why has the cost-effectiveness plummeted?
1. Airdrop value generally shrinks
Except for a few cases like $COLLECT (rising from 80 to 200 USD), $BREV (58.5 USD), most recent airdrops are valued between $10–30, pulling the average down to about $20–30. Even the TGE I’ve been focusing on has shrunk, with ZTC dropping from 30u to 10u. Projects are clearly more “stingy” in a bear market.
2. High score thresholds have become the norm
Historical data shows that stable airdrop collection generally requires a score above 220, with some projects even demanding over 245. This means you must nearly max out the 16 transaction score, leaving little room for error.
3. Profits are swallowed by multiple costs (taking Balance 2 points as an example)
Suppose you have a balance of 2 points, and you刷满交易分 to a total of 270 points, with monthly losses (including Gas fees, slippage, etc.) around $50.
If you claim twice a month, each time worth an average of $30, total income is $60. After deducting $50 in losses, net profit is only $10.
Even with an optimistic estimate of 3 claims per month, total income is $90, with net profit after losses of only $40.
This doesn’t even account for your time and effort costs. You need to encounter a “big毛” worth over $50 this month to make it worthwhile.
4. Project quality is strongly correlated with market conditions
As you perceive, during weak market conditions, high-quality projects tend to delay TGE. Although there are many projects in the table, their market cap (MC) and airdrop value are generally low, reflecting the current conservative ecosystem.
Dynamic strategy suggestions: Rational choices based on your “class”
Strategy 1: For “resignation-edge” users (Balance 1–2 points)
Best strategy: “Maintain presence, low-cost摸奖”
Specific actions:
Keep total score above 61 points, only complete Booster tasks. Obtain transaction points “casually,” without deliberately刷满, and keep monthly losses to a minimum. Focus your main energy, funds, and expectations on other potentially higher-opportunity tracks.
Mindset adjustment:
View Alpha as a “surprise egg” or “lottery station” that might bring unexpected surprises, rather than a stable income source.
Strategy 2: For “sipping soup” users (Balance 3 points and above)
Strategy: “Persist but lower expectations, optimize costs”
Advantages: Your basic score provides higher safety margins and collection probabilities. Under the same losses, your收益风险比 (return-to-risk ratio) is relatively higher.
Actions: Continue participating at a steady pace, but carefully calculate the costs of each operation to avoid ineffective transactions.
Goal: Position it as a稳健的补充性收益 (steady supplementary income), not a path to get rich overnight.
Important risk warnings
Rule variability: Project airdrop rules and Alpha’s scoring mechanisms may be adjusted in the future; past data does not predict future performance.
Market dependence: The value and frequency of airdrops are strongly related to the overall crypto market sentiment. If the market enters a deep bear phase, the situation could worsen; if a bull market returns, opportunities may improve.
Final recommendations
Make decisions driven by data, not emotions or inertia.
In the Alpha ecosystem, your balance score is your “class,” clearly defining your收益天花板 (profit ceiling). At this stage, staying flexible, focusing on cost control and opportunity screening is far wiser than blindly “grinding” scores.
When you find the投入产出比 (input-output ratio) severely unbalanced, the most rational choice might be: reallocate your valuable resources (time, funds, attention) to places with higher efficiency. The market never lacks opportunities; what’s missing is rational investors who can identify opportunities and act efficiently. #Gate广场创作者新春激励