Arthur Hayes asserts: Bitcoin's "rhythm" is about to return, and under the 2026 liquidity wave, it will break previous highs

Arthur Hayes latest post directly addresses Bitcoin’s weak performance in 2025 relative to gold and tech stocks, and offers a confident forecast. He believes whether Bitcoin can regain its upward “rhythm” depends entirely on the dollar liquidity environment.

Although liquidity tightening in 2025 suppresses cryptocurrencies, Hayes lists several key catalysts and firmly believes that 2026 will see a “dramatic expansion” of liquidity, driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs. This article will deeply analyze Hayes’s macro logic, examine the truth behind the market divergence in 2025, and look ahead to the capital wave that could reshape the crypto market in 2026.

Hayes’s core assertion: Liquidity is Bitcoin’s唯一 narrative

In the crypto world, Arthur Hayes’s voice is always influential. As co-founder of derivatives exchange BitMEX, he is known for his bold macro perspective and deep understanding of market mechanisms. Recently, he published an article titled “愁云” (“Clouds of Sorrow”), pointing directly to the core confusion in the current market: when gold surged 44.40% and Nasdaq tech stocks soared 24.6%, why did Bitcoin fall 14.40% in 2025? Hayes’s answer is simple and powerful: it’s all about the liquidity story.

Hayes dismisses complex short-term technical analysis or narrative hype, returning Bitcoin’s value to its fundamental nature — a “monetary technology.” He believes Bitcoin’s value is based on the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies, with its price highly anchored to global dollar liquidity fluctuations. “If gold and Nasdaq perform strongly, how can Bitcoin find its rhythm? The answer can only be that dollar liquidity must expand.” Hayes writes, “Obviously, I believe this will happen in 2026.” This assertion provides a clear coordinate system for Bitcoin’s position within traditional asset sequences: it is not a tech stock nor purely a safe haven asset, but the most sensitive and extreme barometer of global liquidity.

This view is not baseless. Historically, every super bull run of Bitcoin has been accompanied by large-scale expansion of major central banks’ balance sheets, especially the Fed. The 2020-2021 bull market coincided with the “money printing” post-COVID; the 2025 correction aligns with the Fed tightening liquidity to curb inflation and high real US interest rates. Hayes points out that this pattern remains valid; short-term market noise masks the long-term main trend. When liquidity tightens, risk assets come under pressure, and Bitcoin, as the most frontier risk asset, naturally bears the brunt.

The 2025 divergence puzzle: why are AI and gold attracting capital while Bitcoin is losing?

To understand Hayes’s optimism for 2026, we must first clarify why the 2025 market is so divided. According to Curvo data, in a context where the S&P 500 yields an overall return of 18%, the tech sector soared with a total return of 24.6%. Meanwhile, gold, as a traditional safe haven and store of value, achieved an astonishing 44.40% annual increase. In contrast, Bitcoin recorded double-digit declines. Such extreme divergence is rare in history.

Hayes offers sharp insights here. He believes the strength of Nasdaq tech stocks (especially AI concept stocks) has detached from the usual liquidity framework because AI has been “nationalized” by China and the US. He explains: “Through executive orders and government investments, (the Trump) administration is dulling signals from free markets, causing capital — regardless of actual returns — to flood into all AI-related sectors.” In other words, this is a capital allocation driven by national will and strategic competition, creating localized “liquidity oases” that allow tech stocks to thrive even in a liquidity-scarce desert.

Gold’s surge is easier to understand. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions (Hayes specifically mentions the US continuing to “show its military muscles”), de-dollarization trends, and central banks’ ongoing gold purchases, gold’s monetary and safe-haven attributes are doubly activated. It attracts traditional large funds with doubts about sovereign credit and a cautious stance toward high-volatility cryptocurrencies.

2025 Key Asset Performance Comparison

• Bitcoin (BTC): down 14.40%, closing around $96,297.
• Gold (XAU): surged 44.40%, outperforming traditional indices and crypto.
• S&P 500 Tech Sector: up 24.6%, leading the US stock rally.
• S&P 500 Index: up 18%, remaining resilient amid liquidity tightening.

In contrast, Bitcoin in 2025 appears “unsupported on both ends.” It failed to attract enough traditional safe-haven capital like gold because it is still widely viewed as a high-risk asset; at the same time, it couldn’t benefit from structural capital inflows like policy-supported AI stocks. Hayes emphasizes this does not mean Bitcoin’s fundamentals are flawed, but rather that “liquidity does not support our crypto portfolio.” The total market liquidity pool is limited; when water is diverted into certain channels, others temporarily dry up.

Outlook for 2026: which catalysts will ignite dollar liquidity?

So, what is the basis for Hayes’s firm belief that dollar liquidity will expand in 2026? He sketches several clear pathways, which intertwine to point toward a more easing monetary environment.

The primary and most direct catalyst is the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, i.e., “money printing” again. Although the Fed emphasizes policy independence, the possibility of restarting QE or similar measures always exists when faced with economic growth pressures, heavy government debt interest burdens, or systemic risks in financial markets. Hayes predicts that to sustain growth and counter potential downturns, a shift toward easing is inevitable.

Second, falling mortgage rates will signal liquidity loosening. Lower rates will directly stimulate credit demand, reactivating real estate financing and transactions, which are central to the US financial system’s collateral. This loosening means banks’ credit creation capacity recovers, and the money multiplier effect begins to manifest.

Third, Hayes highlights a critical but often overlooked area: commercial banks’ credit support for the US government and military-industrial complex. He writes: “The US will continue to show its military muscles, which requires financing through commercial banks to produce weapons of mass destruction.” This implies that, driven by national strategic needs, the government may encourage banks to lend to defense and related industries via guarantees, subsidies, etc. This policy-driven credit creation will inject new dollar liquidity into the economy.

All these factors together will form a more abundant dollar liquidity pool than in 2025. History shows that excess liquidity always seeks the highest returns. At that time, the relatively undervalued and liquidity-sensitive Bitcoin market is likely to be one of the primary beneficiaries of this wave.

Bitcoin as “monetary technology”: establishing eternal value amid fiat currency debasement

Hayes’s argument ultimately returns to Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition. He is not merely predicting a price rebound but reaffirming the philosophical foundation of Bitcoin’s existence. He defines Bitcoin as “monetary technology,” a precise encapsulation of its dual attributes: a revolutionary decentralized digital technology, and a carrier of monetary value.

“This alone guarantees Bitcoin’s value is greater than zero.” Hayes points out. As long as there is demand worldwide for an uncensorable, non-sovereign store and transfer of value, Bitcoin has its intrinsic value. However, to push Bitcoin’s price close to or above $100,000, an external catalyst of “persistent fiat currency debasement” is needed.

This “fiat debasement” does not necessarily mean hyperinflation but broadly refers to all processes that cause fiat currencies’ purchasing power to decline over time: including moderate inflation, debt monetization, and unchecked fiscal and monetary expansion to address crises. Hayes sees the current global macroeconomic structure embedded with strong forces of ongoing fiat depreciation — whether to service massive debts, fund social welfare, or sustain military competition. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and immutable issuance rules, naturally serves as a hedge against this systemic debasement.

Therefore, investing in Bitcoin macroeconomically is akin to “shorting the global fiat system, especially the long-term abuse of dollar credit.” Hayes’s optimism for 2026 is rooted in his firm belief that sovereign nations cannot escape the “money printing” path. When this process accelerates in some form by 2026, Bitcoin, as the purest and most hardcore “monetary technology,” will gain the strongest momentum in its store-of-value narrative, breaking previous highs and reaching new milestones.

Market insights and strategic considerations: positioning through cycles

Arthur Hayes’s macro narrative offers investors a top-level framework beyond daily volatility. His view suggests that instead of obsessing over technical indicators or short-term news, more focus should be on monitoring signals of global liquidity shifts, such as Fed balance sheet changes, US M2 growth, and global dollar swap spreads.

Current strategies can draw several lessons. First, accept and embrace market cycles. The relative weakness of Bitcoin in 2025 compared to gold and tech stocks is a normal phase within specific liquidity cycles, and should not fundamentally shake confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. Second, maintain patience and conviction. Hayes pinpoints 2026 as the timing, implying markets need time to bottom and for liquidity conditions to shift. Chasing highs blindly or panicking during dips is unwise.

For conservative investors, a dollar-cost averaging approach during market lows can help accumulate positions gradually, smoothing costs and avoiding timing risks. For higher-risk traders, close attention to the aforementioned liquidity catalysts and key resistance breakouts as trend reversal signals is essential.

Finally, it’s crucial to recognize that Hayes’s views, while logically rigorous, remain predictions. Markets are always unpredictable; geopolitical black swans, regulatory surprises can alter liquidity transmission. Listening to macro insights should be coupled with prudent risk management—controlling positions and preparing for both bullish and bearish scenarios. Bitcoin’s “rhythm” may eventually normalize, but only prepared participants can keep pace with its movement.

Arthur Hayes: from trader to macro narrative leader

To fully appreciate Hayes’s weight of opinion, understanding his background is helpful. Arthur Hayes is not a traditional finance graduate; he graduated from Wharton, worked as a stock derivatives trader at Deutsche Bank and Citibank. This experience gave him deep insight into the mechanics and flaws of traditional markets. In 2014, he co-founded BitMEX, launching the revolutionary perpetual swap contracts, transforming crypto derivatives.

Hayes’s personal story is also quite legendary. He faced legal issues with US regulators over BitMEX’s anti-money laundering failures, eventually settling. These experiences give him firsthand knowledge of global financial power structures and regulatory battles. Now, as an independent thinker, his blog is a key source for macro perspectives among crypto investors. His influence stems from combining practical traditional finance experience, pioneering crypto vision, and sharp macro insight.

Liquidity cycles and key Bitcoin price nodes

Hayes’s “liquidity narrative” is not new; it’s a pattern repeatedly validated by history. Looking back:

• 2017 Bull Market: backdrop of Fed rate hikes starting in 2015, balance sheet shrinkage, but abundant global liquidity, especially from China, and the ICO boom created endogenous liquidity.
• 2020-2021 Bull Market: driven directly by the “money printing” of global central banks post-COVID, with trillions in fiscal stimulus and QE.
• 2022 Bear Market: as inflation soared, the Fed launched the most aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in decades, liquidity dried up sharply, Bitcoin fell over 77% from its high.

Almost every major Bitcoin move correlates with global dollar liquidity turning points. The 2025 correction can be seen as an extension of the tightening cycle that began in 2022. Hayes’s outlook for 2026 is based on the expectation of a return to easing. Understanding these cycles helps investors see hope amid panic and stay sober amid euphoria, enabling more rational long-term decisions.