Will Bitcoin's 2026 market trend ride the wave of US dollar liquidity?

In the past month, discussions about next year's US dollar liquidity have heated up in the market. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes pointed out a key logical chain in his latest analysis: Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion, easing of commercial bank credit issuance, and continuous decline in mortgage rates. These factors combined suggest that US dollar market liquidity could experience a significant injection.

Cointelegraph reports indicate that Hayes explicitly forecasts this scenario for 2026. What does this timing mean for the crypto asset market? Historical data shows that in environments with ample liquidity, high-risk assets tend to be the main targets for capital inflows. In previous bullish cycles, Bitcoin's price movements have generally synchronized with the tightening or loosening of US dollar liquidity.

However, forecasts are just predictions; actual market performance depends on multiple variables. The implementation strength of Federal Reserve policies, the evolution of the global economy, geopolitical factors, and more could cause deviations from this projection. Some institutional investors have already begun adjusting their positions based on these expectations, while traders remain cautious about the certainty of policy implementation.

As an influential industry observer, Hayes's views often reshape market participants' expectations. Whether Bitcoin will indeed experience a new upward cycle in 2026, this macro liquidity-based analytical framework is worth paying attention to.