#比特币价格走势 Seeing Saylor again posting Tracker updates, I've seen this routine too many times. I started tracking institutional entry signals back in 2013, when no one considered Bitcoin as an asset allocation. Things are different now — from MicroStrategy’s 671,268 BTC holdings to Grayscale’s projected new highs by the first half of next year, the entire logical chain is now very clear.

This reminds me of the 2016 halving cycle, when institutions were still on the sidelines and retail investors were the main players. Ten years later, the game has completely changed. With government debt soaring and inflation expectations not receding, the pressure of asset scarcity has forced institutions to find new avenues. Bitcoin has shifted from a "risk asset" to a "store of value," and this cognitive shift is more significant than the price increase itself.

Grayscale’s report points out that regulatory clarification is a catalyst, but I have reservations about this. Not because regulation isn’t important, but because the real driving force remains supply and demand imbalance. Every time institutions increase their holdings, they are continuously locking in liquidity, a phenomenon that historically signals a qualitative change in price. The rally from late 2020 to early 2021 was, in hindsight, the result of institutions quietly completing their布局.

I tend to believe the prediction of a new high in the first half of next year, but be cautious — each cycle’s top is accompanied by extreme emotions. The current momentum of accumulation is far less flamboyant than in early 2021, which makes me feel more at ease. History has shown me that the greatest opportunities often hide in seemingly ordinary accumulation.