Recently monitoring the 1-hour trend of ETH, the technical signals have given me quite a few hints. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price being heavily pressed against the middle band, and the moving averages are showing a typical bearish alignment. The MACD is also not optimistic—DIF line has already fallen below DEA, and the green bars are not shrinking but expanding. This clearly indicates a bearish dominance. Trying to reverse the trend with a short-term rally? That’s quite challenging.

In addition to analyzing the chart, I’ve also been tracking on-chain data. Recently, addresses with large inflows to exchanges have increased, but there’s a detail—main capital hasn’t shown obvious accumulation actions. In other words, institutions might also be on the sidelines, or even quietly reducing their positions. The news side is even quieter—no positive developments that could reverse market sentiment have appeared, and the entire market is shrouded in a cautious atmosphere.

Based on these combined signals, my view is: ETH remains relatively weak in the short term. The support level below first looks at previous lows; if the price drops through with high volume, the downside space could further open.

Some people like to talk about bottom-fishing, but I have to be honest—before the trend reverses, reaching out to buy is like taking a knife. The few successful wave tops and short positions I’ve caught before relied on stacking three dimensions: technical signals, on-chain anomalies, and market sentiment. Given the current situation, I still trust my system—bearish momentum has not been fully released yet. At this stage, holding cash and waiting for clearer signals is the safer approach.

Trading is essentially not about impulsiveness, but about waiting for signals and following the trend. Once the market stabilizes and shows upward momentum, I will definitely alert immediately. But for now, patience and protecting the principal are the smartest moves.