#数字资产市场动态 Recently, I came across a viewpoint from an industry insider, and the underlying logic is worth discussing in detail. Combining with the on-chain movements I tracked today, here is a summary of the thought process.

**Who should listen to this?**

This message is actually directed at retail investors. You are not a whale, not a big V, and certainly not a project team member. Going all-in on a meme coin with a small bag, in simple terms, is just gambling. When industry insiders emphasize "risk management," the message is clear — market enthusiasm is getting hot, and someone needs to pour cold water on it.

**What is really happening on the chain?**

Regarding Bitcoin: In the past 24 hours, the growth rate of large holding addresses (>1000BTC) has significantly slowed down, but withdrawals from exchanges haven't stopped — another 12,000 coins have been moved out. Big funds are adjusting their positions, but the total amount of long-term locked-up chips remains the same.

The meme coin hype on L2 chains is rapidly cooling. On Arbitrum and Base, the proportion of meme coin trading has plummeted by 30%, and the rate of new coins crashing immediately after opening has soared to 80%. Smart money is already retreating.

The most noteworthy signal: USDT reserves across exchanges increased by 8% in one week. Stablecoins are accumulating strength, waiting for low points to buy in, but everyone is just trying to catch a bargain.

**My judgment**

In the short term (1-2 weeks), the market needs a decent correction to clear out leveraged longs and chasing hot money. Bitcoin might test the $41k-42k range (which is the cost-intensive zone for large on-chain transactions).
In the medium to long term, after the correction, funds will flow into sectors like AI, DePIN, and RWA — these tracks still have VC chips to be released, driven by actual progress.

Meme coins won't completely die out, but they will definitely become highly polarized. Those still experiencing wild surges are looking for last-minute bagholders, while projects with genuine community foundations may still recover even after sharp declines.

**Actions to consider**

If your position exceeds 50%, look for a rebound to reduce your holdings to below 50%, freeing up cash.

Only invest in meme coins what you can afford to lose, and set stop-loss levels (e.g., close the position if it drops 30%), don’t rely on luck.

Closely monitor the continuous inflow of Bitcoin-related ETFs; next week will be a critical window.

A reminder: Bull markets go bankrupt faster than bear markets. Traders who don’t set stop-losses will be ruthlessly taught a lesson by the market.