Bitcoin Recent Trend Analysis (As of January 15, 2026)

I. Current Market Overview

Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound in January 2026, with prices continuously rising from around $88,000 at the beginning of the year, reaching a high of $97,899 on January 14, marking a new high since mid-November 2025. As of January 15,, Bitcoin's price hovered around $96,800, with a total increase of approximately 10% in January.

II. Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

- Short-term support: $96,000 (immediate support), $95,000 (core support)
- Mid-term support: $93,400, $91,000 (20-day EMA)
- Strong support: $88,000 (structural support)

Key Resistance Levels:

- Short-term resistance: $97,800–$98,000 (previous high area)
- Psychological level: $100,000
- Mid-term target: $104,000–$108,000

Technical Indicators:

The daily MACD continues to expand, indicating a strong mid-term trend; the 4-hour DIF and DEA remain in a bullish alignment, but the histogram shows decreasing volume, suggesting short-term momentum weakening. RSI approaches overbought territory, warranting caution for potential technical correction.

III. Capital Flows and Market Sentiment

Institutional Funds Strongly Returning:

On January 13, the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $753.7 million in a single day, the largest since October 2025. Notably, Fidelity FBTC, Bitwise BITB, and BlackRock IBIT contributed $351 million, $159 million, and $126 million respectively, indicating institutional investors are reallocating significant capital into cryptocurrencies after year-end adjustments.

Market Sentiment Turning Positive:

After about a 40% implied volatility quiet period, Bitcoin often enters a trend phase. Current market liquidity continues to improve, supporting upward movement. It is worth noting that approximately $270 million of Bitcoin short positions were closed in the past 24 hours, further amplifying the upward price momentum through short squeeze.

IV. Macro Environment and Catalysts

Easing Rate Hike Expectations:

In December 2025, US CPI YoY increased by 2.7%, core CPI rose by 2.6%, with moderate inflation data reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This macro backdrop reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, encouraging capital flow into risk assets.

Regulatory Policy Developments:

The US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on the CLARITY Act on January 15, which aims to establish a clear federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Clarification in regulation will lower barriers and risks for institutional participation, providing additional support to the market.

V. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies

Short-term (1-2 weeks):

Bitcoin has entered a high-level consolidation phase after breaking above $96,000. If it can effectively break through resistance at $98,000, it will open the door to challenge the $100,000 mark. In case of a pullback, watch for support at $96,000 and $95,000.

Mid-term (1-2 months):

Multiple institutions forecast Bitcoin may challenge the $100,000 level within January. If successful, targets could be set at $104,000–$108,000. However, be cautious of increased volatility due to the proximity to key psychological levels.

Trading Strategies:

- Bullish Strategy: During a pullback to $96,000–$95,000, gradually add long positions with stop-loss below $94,000, targeting $98,000–$100,000.
- Bearish Strategy: If the price rebounds near $98,000 and shows signs of stagnation, consider small short positions with stop-loss above $100,000, targeting $96,000–$95,000.
- Risk Warning: Set strict stop-loss levels, avoid heavy positions, and monitor macroeconomic data and regulatory developments closely.

VI. Risk Warning

1. Technical correction risk: RSI approaching overbought, short-term correction pressure exists.
2. Macro uncertainty: Federal Reserve policy path and inflation data changes may trigger market volatility.
3. Regulatory risk: Uncertainty in regulatory implementation.
4. Liquidity risk: During high-level consolidation, liquidity may tighten, increasing price fluctuations.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly risky; please make decisions prudently according to your own risk tolerance.