Bitcoin market fluctuations. Yesterday morning, it surged to 96,500 then started to turn around, quickly dropping to around 95,000. The rest of the day was a back-and-forth between 95,500 and 94,700, with bulls and bears fighting for dominance, and the enthusiasm for chasing highs clearly diminished. In the evening during the US session, macro news stimulated Bitcoin to rally again, even reaching near 98,000 in the early hours, but it was met with selling pressure and dropped immediately. This morning, it began to consolidate, now around 96,500, appearing to be a high-level oscillation after a rebound.

From the macro perspective, several Federal Reserve officials' comments last night were quite dovish. Milan again suggested that there could be a cumulative rate cut of 150 basis points this year, and Kashkari also said there is room for further rate cuts before the end of the year. These statements reinforced market expectations of a loose monetary cycle, boosting risk appetite in the short term, and cryptocurrencies rebounded accordingly. However, it’s important to clarify—this is mainly driven by speculative expectations and sentiment, not actual policy implementation. The upcoming economic data and the Fed’s real decision-making pace still have significant divergence in the market.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin successfully broke through the previous resistance at the upper end of its consolidation range and quickly surged. However, this move looks more like an emotional rally after a breakout rather than the start of a trend. Although the daily moving averages have turned upward, the overall picture remains within a mid-term consolidation zone; the four-hour RSI has already entered overbought territory, indicating weakening momentum; and the hourly indicators have turned into a correction mode, reflecting that short-term capital is starting to cool off.