2026-01-15 04:23:03

Market Review

Yesterday, as BTC approached $98,000, Ethereum and Solana showed independent momentum. This signal should not be underestimated.

**Macro + Capital Double Resonance**

The US December PPI data was released at 3%, exceeding expectations, and retail sales also grew steadily by 0.6%. While this sounds unfavorable for rate cuts, the market has already priced in a 95% probability of maintaining interest rates in January. In fact, strong economic data has dispelled recession fears. This is actually a positive signal.

The capital side is even more interesting. ETF inflows have continued for three days in a row, with $754 million coming in yesterday and another $192 million today (IBIT data missing). However, there is a contradictory phenomenon—when the price broke through $96,000, the funding rate turned negative to -0.004%. What does this indicate? There are still bearish voices in the market.

When prices rise, funding is negative, and open interest increases, it forms a classic short squeeze structure. Shorts are being forcibly squeezed into fuel. Coinbase's premium has also turned positive, indicating that buying power in the US is returning.

**Sentiment Still Has Room**

The MVRV ratio is now at 1.69, within a healthy range, far from the top at 3.0+. The Fear & Greed Index shows 61 (greedy), indicating market optimism but not yet crazy.

**Policy and Fundamentals**

Russia is preparing to draft legislation to allow all investors to buy Bitcoin—this is a key step for the world's 9th-largest economy. Germany’s second-largest bank, DZ Bank, has also been approved to operate a crypto platform. The US Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs may be delayed until next week.

**Expectations**

Under the combined effects of macro decoupling and negative funding rates, the market has entered a typical acceleration short squeeze mode. In the short term, stop-loss orders from shorts will act as a driving force, likely ignoring negative news, and pushing directly towards the $98,000 resistance, even aiming for the $100,000 mark.

BTC-1.43%

ETH-1.33%

SOL-2.56%

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MEVVictimAlliance

· 17h ago

Are you still stubbornly holding on to negative fees? Short sellers truly deserve to be squeezed dry this time.

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0xSherlock

· 17h ago

Fee rate turning negative is still crashing the market, this is outrageous, the bears are still struggling to survive.

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AirdropAnxiety

· 17h ago

Short squeeze sounds good, but it's actually just betting on short positions getting liquidated. As a small retail investor, I still prefer to stay on the sidelines for safety. Turning the fee rate negative is a bit unsettling, feels like they’re absorbing the supply. That move in Russia was indeed big, but it still feels like a paper move; real implementation is what counts. 100,000 isn’t that easy to reach; 98,000 got stuck, don’t talk nonsense. MVRV is only 1.69, still far from madness? Then what the hell is 3.0, and how is there so much room to grow? Claiming Ethereum and Sol have independent rhythms is just ridiculous; they’re both just following Bitcoin’s lead. The idea of short stop-loss orders pushing the market is a bit aggressive; it feels like they’re trying to persuade people to go all-in. Funds have been flowing in for three days straight, what does that mean? It just means the retail investors are being harvested again.

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LiquidatedAgain

· 18h ago

Are you still daring to be bullish with negative fees? I thought the same last time, and as a result, the liquidation price was right in front of me.

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FudVaccinator

· 18h ago

Short squeeze really depends on whether the support level can hold, otherwise it's just an illusion again. Daring to chase after rates turn negative? This is when you're most likely to get crushed. If Russia really opens up Bitcoin, could it just be another political show? The $100,000 mark seems quite tough; with such high emotions, the risk is also elevated. MVRV is only 1.69, so there's plenty of room, but it also indicates that not many people are bottom-fishing anymore.

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