Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon—Bitcoin is showing a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. The first wave of decline has already come to an end, and it is now in a rebound phase. This rally is quite fierce; once BTC surges to the 98,000–100,000 range, the bears will need to reassess their positions, and the bulls may also fall into FOMO. The problem is that market liquidity is indeed very tight right now, which is not a good sign.

From a weekly perspective, BTC is currently in a B-wave rebound during a downtrend. This rebound cycle might last longer than expected, and there is even a chance it could reach above 100,000. However, a major correction at a larger scale may not occur until around March, so at this stage, it’s more prudent to prepare for a prolonged short position.

Even more interesting is the market discussion about the four-year cycle. If BTC can truly hit a new high in 2026 but the trend completely breaks the established four-year cycle logic, then things will be a big deal—this would mean the entire market’s belief system might need to be reconstructed. Once the cycle failure becomes a consensus, market narratives will be greatly simplified, and the difficulty of making money afterward will only increase. So, it’s wise to start adapting to this change now.