How this Polymarket trader made $106K+ in 1 month

Low win rate.

Huge profits.

This isn't luck — it's probability.

1/ Let's break down how trader sb911 did it 🧵

2/ In the past month, sb911 made over $100,000 on Polymarket.

But here’s the surprising part:

Total predictions: 294

Winning predictions: 75

Win rate: 25.51%

So how does someone lose ~75% of the time and still win big?

3/ Most of his trades focus on one repeating question:

"Will Elon Musk post X–Y tweets this week?"

This isn’t random speculation.

Elon’s tweeting behavior is:

Frequent

Consistent

Statistically stable over short time windows

That makes it measurable.

4/ Here’s the key insight 👇

Polymarket treats each tweet range as a separate market:

200–219

220–239

240–259

260–279

…

But in reality, these ranges form one continuous probability distribution.

5/ sb911 doesn’t try to predict the exact number.

Instead, he covers multiple adjacent ranges at once.

He's not asking:

"Which range will hit?"

He’s asking:

"Can I cover most realistic outcomes at the right price?"

6/ Now look at how he enters.

Many winning positions were bought at:

1¢

3¢

5¢

10¢

If correct, each share settles at 100¢.

That's asymmetric payoff:

Small, capped losses

Massive upside when one range hits

7/ Yes — most positions go to zero.

You’ll see long lists of –100% trades.

That’s not a mistake.

It’s the design.

This strategy accepts frequent small losses in exchange for rare but explosive wins.

8/ One example says it all:

Cost: ~$1,100

Payout: ~$79,000

ROI: 6,600%+

A single win like this can cover dozens of failed positions.

This is how a 25% win rate becomes highly profitable.

9/ sb911 isn’t gambling.

He’s trading expected value:

Repeating events

Clear resolution rules

Mispriced probability ranges

He’s not predicting outcomes —

he’s trading probability distributions.

That’s the real edge.