Goldman Sachs recently released its economic outlook report for 2026, believing that the US economy will achieve an ideal state of strong growth and moderate inflation coexistence. As a result, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September.

But looking closely at this logical chain, the problem arises. Goldman Sachs' forecast implies that there will be no rate cuts in the first five months of 2026, and this so-called "forward-looking positive" has limited impact on boosting the market. In the Bitcoin market, it is likely to continue the pattern of shrinking volume and bottoming out in the first half of the year, without any substantial policy-driven catalyst.

What's more interesting is that if economic data indeed improves but the unemployment rate quietly rises due to AI automation, the Fed's situation will become awkward. They might be forced to be much more aggressive than Goldman Sachs currently predicts in the second half of the year, possibly cutting rates earlier or increasing the magnitude of rate cuts. In this way, the entire policy trajectory for 2026 would have a lot of uncertainty, and whether the current consensus expectations can be realized remains uncertain.