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Polymarket's valuation prediction for Opinion exceeds 1 billion, which is similar to my valuation system.
Conservative valuation (based on Aster's 16.3x) is close to Aster's conservative cash flow pricing: 67.2M × 16.3 ≈ $1.1 billion market cap.
Neutral valuation (based on Aster Lighter Hyperliquid's average multiple of 27.4x) uses the average annualized revenue multiples of the three major Perp protocols as a market consensus estimate: 67.2M × 27.4 ≈ $2.8 billion market cap.
Optimistic valuation (based on Lighter and Hype valuation premiums): 67.2M × 28.6 ≈ $1.9 billion market cap.
Referring to Hyperliquid's premium level of about 37x, Opinion's FDV could potentially reach a market cap of $2.5 billion.
Under protocol revenue-based pricing, @opinionlabsxyz's reasonable FDV range is between $1.1B and $2.5B. Below $1B is a clear discount, and in a fully bullish market sentiment and prediction narrative, above $1.5B is acceptable to the market.