Gambling and drugs are things you should stay away from.

A few days ago, a trader friend @NRenjoy8 went to Macau for New Year’s vacation. He initially just wanted to dip into some red and blue, but he accidentally lost over two million RMB—almost equivalent to two Patek Philippe 5811 watches.

The VIP lounge bets start from 5,000 to 10,000, with each bet ranging from 700 to 1,400 USD. The win-loss structure is very standard 1:1. Essentially, it’s just a matter of luck in consecutive correct bets, with no structural advantage in profit or loss.

That’s also why I’ve never gone to casinos, because the risk-reward ratio is too low. When you place a bet, you’re already locked into a symmetrical structure. In the long run, the expected value inevitably converges to the house, and it’s just a matter of losing early or late.

I prefer to focus my energy on things where the risk-reward ratio is clearly asymmetric. Crypto at least still offers positive expected events driven by research, judgment, and cognitive differences, whereas casinos don’t even have that entry point.

Basically, what you’re doing is choosing whether or not to participate in a probabilistic game that’s unfavorable to you.