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Economists' warnings are coming again. What are they saying this time? A market crash could occur in 2026.
HS Dent Investment founder Harry Dent recently issued a bold prediction—that the most severe market crash in history will arrive in 2026. His logic is as follows: a nearly 17-year-long market bubble since 2009 will eventually burst. When this bubble bursts, the stock market could experience a 90% decline, marking the worst market environment since the Great Depression.
Interestingly, Dent emphasizes that the problem with this bubble is not just AI speculation overheating. Stocks, real estate, digital assets—these areas are all deeply trapped in a "super bubble" driven by debt.
Why is this happening? Dent explains that the bubble began rapidly expanding in 2009, without any effective recession to clear debt and problems in between. It has continued to this day, never truly resetting. Tracing the roots, he dates the start of this cycle to the period after the 2008 financial crisis. Policymakers prevented the natural adjustment of the economy through aggressive monetary interventions, which should have led to a longer downturn like in the 1930s, but instead, deficit spending accelerated the expansion.
What are the key time points? Dent believes that early 2026, especially January, will be a critical period to determine whether the bubble finally bursts or continues. Historically, the stock market's performance in the first week and the first month of January often predicts the year's overall trend. If January is strong, the bubble may continue; if January is weak, it further confirms a downward trend.
Finally, Dent emphasizes an old rule: every speculative bubble ultimately ends in devastating losses. This time will be no exception. However, for the crypto market, such systemic risks might actually present new opportunities—hot money, shrinking in stocks and traditional assets, could flow into alternative investments, including digital assets.